Behind the corridors of power

The only common thread is that Collins has no chance but she is having the time of her life . . .

After the Kaiko¯ ura earthquake, the Press Gallery was relocated from its annexe behind the Beehive to a ground-floor corridor it shares with National MPs.

The carpet will be worn bare by the time National decides its new leader this week. The corridor houses a small number of senior MPs – including leadership hopeful Mark Mitchell – and the newly influential class of 2017, National’s first-term rookies.

The Press Gallery is in prime position to watch the comings and goings as the new MPs are courted by the leadership contenders. The flurry of activity along that corridor on Thursday suggests this leadership race is far from a done deal.

Mitchell, Amy Adams, Simon Bridges and Judith Collins were all seen entering and exiting offices during the week. The only one not observed was Steven Joyce but we probably shouldn’t read too much into that. He might just be better at moving in the shadows.

Joyce’s numbers man, Nathan Guy, did visit, however – he was spotted heading purposefully towards the MPs’ end of the corridor on Thursday.

The wheeling and dealing will have continued through the weekend as the rivals work the phones and hold meetings to gather pledges of support.

With five contenders, doing the numbers is a mug’s game and it depends on who you talk to. But here we go.

Some say it’s neck and neck between Bridges, Joyce and Adams. Soundings among at least two camps put Joyce’s numbers much lower, however. And soundings among Bridges’ camp suggest a level of confidence that he has the bulk of votes behind him, though no one has enough to win a first-round ballot.

The only common thread is that Collins has no chance but she is having the time of her life and is assured of a spot on the front bench, no matter who wins.

Collins is, however, winning the public vote, according to a Spinoff-UMR poll, closely followed by Joyce.

That may weigh heavily with some MPs, in particular in relation to Joyce’s candidacy. But it probably just proves the point behind National not polling the question itself, though it seems the party toyed with the idea.

Joyce and Collins are ahead with the public because they have name recognition, which might be helpful if the election was next week but probably doesn’t mean much three years out.

But in their favour, both are also strongly identified with brand National. That’s what will be giving MPs pause for thought about Joyce.

Usually, a strong brand association is a negative when a party is looking to change its leader after three terms in government. But brand National is still a positive with more than 40 per cent of voters. So while some of the backbenchers are chafing for change, they also have to be careful not to throw the baby out with the bath water.

Joyce has the brain power and experience to make the transition. He is also the obvious foil to Ardern.

He and Collins, in particular, would be a formidable team. And if Joyce unleashed some of his wit and charm he might even be able to soften his image with the public. But their main purpose would be to act as a wrecking ball against Labour’s front bench.

Joyce is also a legendary micro manager who has wielded immense power over the caucus for the last decade; there is no aspect of the party’s economic policy or strategy that he hasn’t had a hand in.

There is an acknowledgement that, like Collins, he is an essential part of any future lineup. But whether he is capable of moving aside to make room for the next generation is arguable.

A Joyce-led National Party rests on the assumption that 2020 would be a return to normal transition after a brief interruption.

Bridges’ candidacy, however, accepts that voters will be looking for generational change in National by 2020. Of all the candidates, he has been the most overt about Joyce needing to relinquish control.

That may be what is making some of the old guard nervous and giving Joyce’s campaign some legs.

But this vote is almost more about style over substance, and strategy over ideology. Because National is not yet at the ideological crossroads where it must choose between shoring up the base and wooing voters in the centre. The base never left and the soft centre is still there, though the latest 1 News poll suggests a few are flaking off.

Collins might sound flintier than her rivals, but even she is not advocating a massive lurch away from core National policy. Her plans for the Resource Management Act, for instance, are probably not much more radical than National would have pushed through in its third term if it hadn’t been hamstrung by its reliance on the Ma¯ ori Party.

Bridges, meanwhile, is more centrist than Collins and has pushed the ‘‘greenification’’ of National – but that is as much a strategic ploy, to make a deal with the Greens in 2020 look more credible than it did this time around, when Bill English extended an 11th hour olive branch to the minor party. And that is what this contest really boils down to.

National has already lost its position as the most popular party in Parliament under the latest poll. Which means its strategy at successive elections of relying on having almost enough votes to govern alone is already undermined.

Whoever wins tomorrow is going to have to promise their colleagues they have a path to winning. And that means either growing National’s vote to about 47 per cent again, which means going nuclear on NZ First and turning 2020 into a first past the post-style election.

Or they have to promise they can do better at MMP and get a deal across the line next time. And like the last election, the two may be mutually exclusive.