Overseas AB a matter of time
OPINION: New Zealand Rugby is a dominant presence here but in the global market it is just another vessel navigating big seas.
Money has always been available for All Blacks in Europe and Japan, but New Zealanders need to realise the current market is unrecognisable from that of five years ago.
Of the top five New Zealanders being paid to play rugby, probably only one is an All Black: Kieran Read. But he likely trails Dan Carter (Racing 92), Charles Piutau (Ulster), Steven Luatua (Bristol) and Aaron Cruden (Montpellier).
Even Lima Sopoaga will be on par with Read when he joins Wasps next year, particularly if he takes advantage of the aggressive tax minimisation schemes available to sportspeople in the UK.
It is an imbalance that will not persist. NZ Rugby’s policy of selecting only players who play in New Zealand has a shelf life of five years, maximum.
NZ Rugby has held out remarkably well to stick with the policy. But it has survived in part because it has not really been stress-tested to the extent it will be after the 2019 World Cup.
Then, the best players in New Zealand will have a choice. Do they stick around for four years in New Zealand earning half of what they are worth, or do they spend a year or two abroad and then come back for a crack at 2023? My money is on the latter.
Let’s play out some scenarios, as NZ Rugby undoubtedly has done behind closed doors or in cold sweats in the middle of the night.
Brodie Retallick knocks on the door and says: ‘‘I still want to be an All Black but if I go to Europe for the next two years I can look after my family and learn new things as a player.’’
Then Sam Cane comes knocking and tells NZR to keep the door open because he saw Beauden Barrett in the lobby too.
Under these circumstances NZ Rugby would change its policy, because the power now lies with the players.
There has been a hollowing out of talent in New Zealand due to the exodus of fringe All Blacks, so if a few top-end players go it would seriously challenge the All Blacks’ ability to keep winning.
The dominant theory in New Zealand is that no players return here from overseas as better players, but things are shifting quickly in that space too.
Will Genia and Kurtley Beale went straight back into the Wallabies last year from stints in France and England and were probably the Wallabies’ best players. Northern Hemisphere rugby has improved, and so has its conditioning.
You also have to look at this from a players’ point of view. Why is it they can’t earn their global market value without being deprived of the opportunity of playing for their country?
NZ Rugby would be hardpressed to counter this argument. It has repositioned itself as a global entity. It has a global outlook with global sponsors and it should not be surprised that players want to participate in the global marketplace.
In the end, money talks. Players will continue to move overseas because the offers are going to keep coming, in increasing amounts.
The only question that remains is: who will trigger a change to NZ Rugby’s policy, and when will that happen? My guess is that NZ Rugby already has a fair idea.