Blind faith isn’t enough to end drought
It’s not an original argument, but that doesn’t make it invalid. If you have the New Zealand Warriors making this year’s NRL top-eight, who are the teams that are dropping out?
Not Melbourne or the Roosters, presumably? What about Cronulla, Parramatta or Penrith? Surely not the Cowboys? That leaves Manly and Brisbane from last year’s lot. Got either of them experiencing a significant decline in fortunes?
Never mind the notion that the Warriors play well enough to make the playoffs, for the first time since 2011, you’d also have to assume none of the other alsorans will do as well.
Canberra have had a big off-season, the Rabbitohs have a fit-again Greg Inglis plus Dane Gagai from Newcastle, Dean Pay’s arrived to coach the Bulldogs and St George-Illawarra have star halfback Ben Hunt on the books now. Then there’s Mitchell Pearce and the Knights.
They must all have a reasonable chance of improving on their 2017 performances.
In fact, looking at various betting agency odds, the bookies believe it’s just the Warriors, West Tigers and Gold Coast Titans who can’t.
Which leaves Warriors enthusiasts having to rely on blind faith, as usual. That’s not yielded a lot in the past – with the club making just seven finals’ appearances since admission to the competition in 1995 – but it’s about all the team have going for them.
There are a sprinkling of players who’ve achieved decent things elsewhere, such as Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Adam Blair, Issac Luke, Tohu Harris and Gerard Beale. But that’s offset by others who’ve consistently flattered to deceive and a head coach, Stephen Kearney, whose record is abysmal.
Having won 10 of his 42 games in charge at Parramatta, he’s now won seven of 24 in Auckland. Whatever grace his years as Kiwis coach granted him has well and truly elapsed.
The one real thing the club have to recommend them is general manager of football Brian Smith. Not a man who’s universally liked in the game, Smith’s record is still impressive – particularly by Warriors standards.
He twice took St George to the grand final, along with Parramatta and the Roosters, and has a reputation for quickly moulding rabbles into shape. Smith’s fallen out with the odd person along the way, but there’s no doubting his knowledge or desire to succeed.
Overall, though, you look at this year’s Warriors team and think nearly, but not quite.
The pack is all right but lacks size and grunt. The backs are OK, but not a lot better than that.
Plenty of store has been placed in the recruitment of five-eighth Blake Green. He’s steady and fulfilled the limited role he was given at Melbourne quite well, but the Warriors are his eighth club in 11 years.
Green now joins James Maloney, Thomas Leuluai, Jeff Robson, Tuimoala Lolohea, Kieran Foran and Ata Hingano, among others, in getting the plum job of foil for the mercurial Shaun Johnson.
At some point Johnson has to be held up as the problem, rather than the revolving cast of halves who’ve been asked to work alongside him.
For now, you look at the squad and recall Johnson’s better nights and the success Luke and Tuivasa-Sheck enjoyed in their Sydney days, and decide where there’s life, there must be hope . . . provided a host of rivals go backwards.