Migration dips but set to stay strong
Net migration has dropped to the lowest level in two years, despite a jump in the gains from people arriving to live in New Zealand.
Statistics New Zealand’s latest international travel and migration survey showed the net gain from migration in the 12 months to March 31 was 67,984.
The lowest since March 2016, the annual net migration gain was down by about 1000 from the year ended February 28. In March alone, migration gains jumped about 10 per cent, on a seasonally adjusted basis, to 5480.
ASB economist Mark Smith said movements in recent months pointed to a gradual easing of migration gains.
However, it was likely that the gains would remain above the long-term average, he said.
‘‘It is our expectation that the solid New Zealand domestic backdrop will maintain the strong allure of New Zealand, whereas departures will continue to trend up as the global economy strengthens and the tight Australian labour market lures more Kiwis across the ditch,’’ Smith said.
‘‘We expect net [permanent and longterm] inflows to remain historically high over the next few years, with annual net inflows expected to remain above 50,000 persons by the end of 2019.’’
Both the Reserve Bank and the Treasury have consistently predicted swift declines in the gains from migration for several years.
Both organisations continue to base forecasts off an expectation that migration will moderate much faster than bank economists do.
Meanwhile, although there were signs of a small dip in the trend for tourists after February saw a boost from the Chinese new year, annual visitor numbers hit a fresh record of 3.82 million for the year to March 31, up 8 per cent on the previous year.