Doomsday no-deal Brexit scenario revealed

Britain would be hit with shortages of medicine, fuel and food within a fortnight if the UK tries to leave the European Union without a deal, according to a Doomsday Brexit scenario drawn up by senior civil servants for David Davis.

Whitehall has begun contingency planning for the port of Dover to collapse ‘‘on day one’’ if Britain crashes out of the EU, leading to critical shortages of supplies.

Last month officials in Davis’ Brexit department and the departments of health and transport drew up scenarios for a nodeal Brexit – a mild one, a severe one and one dubbed ‘‘Armageddon’’.

A source said: ‘‘In the second scenario, not even the worst, the port of Dover will collapse on day one. The supermarkets in Cornwall and Scotland will run out of food within a couple of days, and hospitals will run out of medicines within two weeks.’’

Officials would have to charter aircraft, or use the RAF to ferry supplies to the furthest corners of the UK.

‘‘You would have to medevac medicine into Britain, and at the end of week two we would be running out of petrol as well,’’ the source said.

Concern about chaos at Dover was behind a decision by Highways England to announce plans last month to build ‘‘one or more lorry holding areas’’ in Kent ‘‘to reduce the congestion caused by cross-Channel disruption’’.

It is understood that the papers were prepared for the socalled Inter-Ministerial Group on Preparedness, which meets weekly when parliament is sitting. One official said the scenarios are so explosive they have only been shared with a handful of ministers and are ‘‘locked in a safe’’.

A spokesman for the Brexit department confirmed the discussions had taken place, but said it was ‘‘completely false’’ that the doomsday scenario would unfold: ‘‘A significant amount of work and decision-making has gone into our no-deal plans, especially where it relates to ports, and we know that none of this would come to pass.’’

But the details were leaked by officials who believe Brexiteers are still too bullish about the prospect of walking away and trading on World Trade Organisation terms.

Brexiteers accused the civil service of peddling a new version of ‘‘Project Fear’’.

Iain Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader, said: ‘‘They are frozen in the headlights. They should be planning for what happens if there is no deal, not scaring the pants off each other. We need people with imagination and courage, not frightened rabbits.’’

The government has said it would in effect throw open Britain’s borders in the event of a nodeal Brexit. But officials fear the EU, particularly the French, would not do the same.

A senior official said: ‘‘We are entirely dependent on Europe reciprocating our posture that we will do nothing to impede the flow of goods into the UK. If, for whatever reason, Europe decides to slow that supply down, then we’re screwed.’’

Disrupting trade would lead to ‘‘reciprocal jeopardy’’, with the French also running short of medicines, but officials believe that would take six months to have an effect. ‘‘The French are militant about borders,’’ a source added.

Davis has sought to persuade civic leaders in key ports such as Calais and Antwerp to tell their central governments that goods must keep flowing.

Layla Moran, a Liberal Democrat who speaks for the proremain group Best for Britain, called on the government to publish the documents. ‘‘We can now see that the government are driving us all towards disaster. What is worse is that they know it too,’’ she said. – Sunday Times