History suggests Crusaders are due a playoff loss

Are we all agreed that the Hurricanes’ 35-10 win over the Crusaders in July 2016 is irrelevant?

It might be the last time the Crusaders lost a Super Rugby game in Christchurch but that’s ancient history now, right? This is a different season, these are different players and circumstances and what’s happened in the past is of no consequence. Agreed?

So why are so many putting so much store in various Crusaders records stretching back to the dawn of Super Rugby? How is it that they’re so pertinent to the outcome of tomorrow’s Super Rugby semifinal at AMI Stadium?

On the basis of things such as the Hurricanes having never beaten the Crusaders in a playoff game, that all-New Zealand semifinals have always been won by the home side and that the Crusaders are yet to lose a knockout game in Christchurch, tomorrow’s result is a foregone conclusion. Or is it?

If all that tells us anything, it’s that a Crusaders’ loss is long overdue and, having beaten them in eight of their last 12 meetings, the Hurricanes are just the team to inflict it. Or not.

Credit to Hurricanes coach Chris Boyd, then, for sticking to the narrative that his team are on Hurricanes: Nehe Milner-Skudder, Julian Savea, Jordie Barrett, Ngani Laumape, Ben Lam, Beauden Barrett, TJ Perenara, Blade Thomson, Gareth Evans, Brad Shields (c), Sam Lousi, Michael Fatialofa, Jeff To’omaga-Allen, Ricky Riccitelli, Toby Smith. Reserves: James O’Reilly, Chris Eves, Ben May, Vaea Fifita, Ardie Savea/Reed Prinsep, Jamie Booth, Ihaia West, Wes Goosen.

Crusaders: David Havili, Seta Tamanivalu, Jack Goodhue, Ryan Crotty, George Bridge, Richie Mo’unga, Bryn Hall, Kieran Read, Matt Todd, Jordan Taufua, Sam Whitelock (capt), Scott Barrett, Owen Franks, Codie Taylor, Joe Moody. Reserves: Andrew Makalio, Tim Perry, Michael Alaalatoa, Luke Romano, Pete Samu, Mitchell Drummond, Mitchell Hunt, Braydon Ennor. a hiding to nothing.

‘‘There’s a whole bunch of stats that’ll tell you that hometeam advantage in playoffs in Super Rugby is significant. If you look at the win-loss, home and away is significant; it’s even more significant for the Crusaders in the fact that they’ve never lost a playoff game down there ever,’’ Boyd said on Wednesday.

‘‘I don’t think they’ve got that much vulnerability,’’ said Boyd.

‘‘They’re not playing-through champions and winners of the round-robin for any other reason than that they’re a bloody good side.’’