Tight finish alarms Republicans
A paper-thin Republican byelection victory in a congressional seat that President Trump’s party won by 37 points two years ago has rung alarm bells and raised the prospect of a defeat in November’s midterms.
Troy Balderson declared himself the winner yesterday against his Democratic rival, Danny O’Connor, in Ohio’s 12th congressional district, a traditionally conservative constituency surrounding the city of Columbus. With just over 3000 votes to count, he was ahead by 1754 votes, a margin of 0.9 per centage points. The narrowness of the race has signalled that Capitol Hill is up for grabs, as both parties sense that the Republicans are vulnerable even in previously safe seats.
The Republicans control both the House of Representatives and the Senate. A loss of either would weaken Trump’s grip.
Last week, the president took the cautious step of campaigning for Balderson, 56, who is a firm supporter of his policies. He pitched himself as the candidate who would back Trump’s wall along the Mexican border and his proposed tax cuts.
‘‘When I decided to go to Ohio for Troy Balderson, he was down in early voting 64 to 36. That was not good,’’ Trump claimed on Tuesday. ‘‘After my speech on Saturday night, there was a big turn for the better. Now Troy wins a great victory during a very tough time of the year for voting. He will win BIG in [November].’’ In fact, polls leading up to Wednesday’s contest had the candidates neck and neck.
Yesterday, Trump was even more bullish, tweeting: ‘‘As long as I campaign and/or support Senate and House candidates (within reason), they will win! I LOVE the people, & they certainly seem to like the job I’m doing. If I find the time, in between China, Iran, the Economy and much more, which I must, we will have a giant Red Wave!’’
Other Republicans were less sanguine. ‘‘This remains a very tough political environment and we cannot expect to win tough races when our candidate is being outraised [outspent],’’ said Corry Bliss, executive director of the Congressional Leadership Fund, a Republican political action committee.
Democrats said the Ohio contest proved that Republican seats could be won. ‘‘OH-12 wasn’t supposed to be competitive – but last night proved Democrats can close the gap anywhere, even in the reddest districts,’’ Tom Perez, the party chairman, said.
Yesterday, O’Connor, 31, had not yet conceded. A recount may be triggered automatically if Balderson’s lead tightens to half a per centage point, and a final result may be weeks away.
Ohio’s special election was called to fill a seat left vacant by a retiring Republican and Balderson and O’Connor will square up again in November. Democrats are optimistically predicting a ‘‘blue wave’’ of victories in the midterms as they exploit deep divisions in Republican ranks. Trump’s appeal to his core supporters appears unshakable but his divisive policies could energise Democrats while encouraging centrist Republicans to stay at home.
However, even some of his Republican adversaries acknowledge that they need the president’s help. In an extraordinary turn this week, Texas senator Ted Cruz, an arch-rival to Trump in the 2016 Republican primary, said he would ask the president to campaign for him.
The invitation to a man who nicknamed him ‘‘Lying Ted’’ and insulted his wife betrayed the depth of Cruz’s concern over his prospects in a traditionally safe Republican state.
The president’s party holds a two-seat majority in the 100-member chamber. In the House of Representatives, Democrats must oust 24 Republicans to gain control. They are facing an insurgency from the left wing of the party, which has accused the Democratic establishment of abandoning its traditional voting base of working people and accepting money from rich donors.
Campaigning in Ohio, Trump and Balderson sought to paint O’Connor, a county registrar, as an avatar of Nancy Pelosi, the unpopular long-serving Democratic leader in the House of Representatives.