Few silver linings in battle for top job
Australian leadership contender and former immigration minister Peter Dutton is a product of hardline attitudes to Kiwi expats across the Tasman – not the reason for them. That’s why there are few silver linings in the Australian leadership stoush for New Zealand.
Dutton has been relegated to the back bench for now but his bid for the leadership shows the extent to which the conservative faction of Malcolm Turnbull’s Liberal Party is in the ascendancy.
It’s that faction which has pushed the hard line on immigration.
There is every expectation that Dutton will have another crack at the leadership and a likelihood that, with better organisation next time round, he could win.
Even if Turnbull hangs on, he has no room to move in softening Australia’s hardline immigration policies which have become a major irritant in New Zealand-Australian relations.
The hardliners in his caucus and Cabinet would seize on any softening in the ‘good character’ test and deportee issue to further undermine Turnbull’s leadership.
So if anything, expect Australian attitudes toward Kiwi expats to harden, rather than mellow.
If there are any silver linings in the attempted coup, it’s the survival of Australian foreign minister Julie Bishop. She is so highly respected that there were no other contenders for the deputy leadership when Turnbull put the issue to a ballot.
Bishop is no particular friend of New Zealand, though Peters did his best to charm her with lobster and fine wine at a private dinner at his home when Bishop was here earlier this year.
But she is a known quantity and not in the same camp as Dutton and his conservative counterpart, former prime minister Tony Abbott.
She is also one of the few predictable figures in the increasingly unpredictable and volatile world of Australian politics.
Peters is coincidentally in Australia this week and will be taking soundings from Bishop about what the current leadership ructions might mean.
But those discussions will take place behind closed doors, rather than in public.
Peters has amped up the anti-Australian rhetoric in response to its hardline detention policy – like the case of a Kiwi teen imprisoned with adult inmates.
It’s been a win-win for both sides – Peters gets to look good domestically for refusing to be cowed by the Aussies, while the Australian Government gets points at home for sticking to its guns.
But Peters’ intervention helped bring about the teen’s release, which suggests that despite being less than a year in the job he has already done a good job of establishing the personal connections that help oil the wheels in transTasman relations.
And it’s that which will cause New Zealand the biggest headaches as it watches the latest leadership ructions from afar.
Personal connections are crucial and signs more upheaval lies ahead after a period of relative stability under Turnbull will be a setback.
But if there’s one more silver lining for Ardern and her government, it’s that Australian politicians keep finding ways to make ours look good.
Even if Turnbull hangs on, he has no room to move in softening Australia’s hardline immigration policies which have become a major irritant in New Zealand-Australian relations.