Ardern hunts down elephant in the room

Jacinda Ardern’s big economic speech today to arrest plummeting business confidence and ‘‘reset’’ the Government’s relationship with business comes as there is a noticeable shift in the political temperature. After months seemingly stuck on the back foot, Labour is picking up momentum, its ministers finally making the necessary gear change from Opposition to Government.

There have been a number of populist moves including freezing MPs pay and reining in state sector chief executive bonuses, axing departure cards, banning single-use plastic bags and passing legislation banning foreign buyers.

There has also been some big picture thinking behind the scenes that will soon start to show up in sweeping and overdue reforms of the State Sector and Public Finance Act.

National, in contrast, seems to be morphing from the well oiled machine that entered the Opposition benches to just another Opposition party barking at every passing car.

It has even started to look a little ragged as the first signs of its legendary discipline and unity start to unravel over the leaking of leader Simon Bridges’ travel expenses and the likelihood that it was an internal leak.

Bridges’ subsequent calls for an inquiry and the potential for that to blow up in his face will rattle the confidence of his MPs in his judgment.

If timing is everything, Ardern has got her timing about right.

Today’s speech follows through on Ardern’s promise on returning from maternity leave to reach out to business – traditionally Labour’s toughest critic – just as the next round of business confidence surveys are due for release.

Ardern referred to plummeting business confidence in a speech earlier this year as the ‘‘elephant in the room’’.

The elephant is still there and has got even bigger, though Ardern will make the point in her speech that there is an even bigger elephant in the room, the healthy state of the economy.

But her overture to business will include an offer to work more collaboratively, and she will signal more clearly the Government’s intentions in a key area of its industrial relations reforms.

Most of the reason for plunging business confidence has been a lack of clarity and certainty about some of Labour’s reforms in that area.

The speech will help provide some of the certainty business has been calling for.

But the next few months may also reveal the extent to which business sentiment has largely been a reaction to National’s continuing strength in the polls.

So long as there is a view that business only has to wait Labour out before National returns to power in a couple of years’ time, there is no great incentive for business to get on board.

Ardern’s speech is the first attempt to move the dial back in Labour’s direction.

But, if Labour’s momentum in other areas is followed by a shift in the polls, that might be the most persuasive argument of all.

Jacinda Ardern’s overture to business today will include an offer to work more collaboratively.