Census can’t meet cost cuts

Statistics New Zealand is unlikely to meet cost cutting expectations for future censuses, as Census 2018 looks to cost an extra $6 million.

The department has repeatedly pushed out an initial October 2018 deadline for releasing the latest census data, while scrambling to fill gaps in a result which missed one in 10 New Zealanders. The data is now expected to be released as late as August, 2019.

The stalled and flawed census data has attracted concern and criticism from government departments and economists, with some fearing court action may result.

And the political blame game over funding of the first truly digital census has already begun.

Stats NZ was expected to produce a modernised census while reducing the average cost by 5 per cent within two census cycles.

The total five-year budget for the census, granted by the previous National government, was $120m. It’s hard to compare census budgets, which rise and fall with each cycle, but the previous census in 2013 cost about $90m.

Stats NZ continues to deny requests for an interview, but a spokesman said in answer to written questions that ‘‘an overall reduction in cost across two census cycles seemed an appropriate target at the time’’.

It was now ‘‘unlikely’’ there would be cost savings at the 2023 Census in keeping with the goal, the spokesman said.

The debate surrounding the funding of Census 2018 was ‘‘robust’’, with ‘‘strong expectations that Stats NZ has considered all options, including the frequency of the census, and that the department has looked for efficiencies and savings’’.

Current spending forecasts had Census 2018 costing about $6m more than the $120m budget, and ‘‘Stats NZ expects to fund a substantial proportion of this via its own baseline’’.

Independent economist Brian Easton said he and six other statisticians have suggested to Government ministers that Stats NZ abandons Census 2018 and runs another census in 2021, instead of 2023.

Stats NZ ruled this out, saying there was not enough time to prepare another census for 2021.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern this month blamed the previous National government for poorly funding the census.

‘‘There was an expectation on Statistics NZ to reduce costs by the last government by 5 per cent over two full census cycles.

‘‘That was at the same time that Stats NZ did some risk analysis and advised that they would need an increase in support over a five-year period in order to do their jobs properly.’’

But National’s State Services spokesman Nick Smith pushed back on the description of a funding pullback, saying the 2018 census was ‘‘generously funded’’ with a budget 20 per cent larger than the previous one.

The stalled and flawed census data has attracted concern and criticism.