Playing the political Game of Thrones
TAXING CAPITAL GAINS LOSES ELECTIONS
The evidence of three elections past proves this beyond all doubt. Lighting a fire under your party’s tax policy one week out from an election – as Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern did – is almost unthinkable. Until you pause to consider the amount of damage it was doing to Labour.
This week, Ardern stood at the Beehive podium to say even though she believed it was what was best for New Zealand, her party would not be campaigning on a capital gains tax (CGT) ever again.
It’s a decision that has angered unions and sections of the party base. But there is no risk to her leadership from within Labour.
There is a serious risk, though, when it comes to her prime ministership and Labour’s place in Government, should they test it on the country a fourth time.
Call it abandoning her values, call it being pragmatic. A person’s view on that will likely reflect their own politics; she made a call to win.
UNITING KINGDOMS IS NEVER EASY
It’s understood from a few key sources that there was no movement whatsoever from Labour’s coalition partner NZ First at the CGT negotiating table – the party would not budge from its opposition.
Since Ardern stepped into the leadership, the Labour Party caucus has called her by a new nickname, Mother of Dragons – borrowed from the hit TV show Game of Thrones.
In the early days she did unite a fairly ramshackle caucus into a co-ordinated campaign for the throne in the Cabinet room, as well as inspiring a movement behind her within a few short weeks.
But she has bent the knee to Winston Peters – not only on this Government’s CGT decision, but in perpetuity as well.
While the simple motive is to win the next election, she was never going to do that by driving up both National’s and NZ First’s vote, and potentially forcing them into each other’s arms.
But really, what does it matter if Peters drove a major Government backdown with only a seven per cent share of the vote.
That the Government could not reach a consensus on CGT is a rather democratic outcome, regardless of the vote share between NZ First and Labour; most of the country does not want a CGT and they are assured, in the near future at least, of not having one foisted on them.
It means discussions over who can claim victory, and who bent the knee to whom, are by no means irrelevant. But they are redundant.
VOTERS PUNISH DISUNITY
That National’s party vote remained at 40 per cent in the TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll immediately following the Christchurch terror attacks is nothing short of miraculous.
Not because National was doing badly in the leadup, but because Ardern has been the media darling of the entire world.
Foreign celebrities and journalists have sung her praises, world leaders have marvelled at her inclusive response to the attack, her face was plastered on the side of the Burj Khalifa in Dubai for goodness’ sake.
She’s topping every list possible measuring the most influential, best leaders with the most inspirational selection of headscarves.
She can do no wrong in the eyes of the international media.
Name an Opposition leader who could contend with that.
But it’s not unreasonable to expect this might be the best result Labour and Ardern will get between now and the election.
So for all those predicting National leader Simon Bridges’ early demise, it might pay to remember this as the most unbreakable rule of them all.
We have returned to domestic politics as normal, Ardern has just made a decision that will have disillusioned significant sects of her own party, and the Government has to pull one incredible Budget out of the bag if it wants to live up to the promises it made in this, its ‘‘year of delivery’’.
National MPs participating in a white-anting campaign, which is by all accounts in full swing with Judith Collins at its centre, better be damn sure of their numbers – not just for National’s sake, but their own.
National’s brand is as strong as ever, but a failed attempt at the leadership will put paid to that – the fastest way to send popularity plummeting.
Then again, a failed leadership bid could show party unity at unexpected levels, should the outcome reveal a potential contender having been deliberately led to believe they had greater support than they did by many people.
That would indeed put any agitator back in their box.
IT’S THE PARTY VOTE THAT COUNTS
A tired mantra, but true. Bridges is consistently polling at 5 per cent popularity in the leadership stakes and those are pretty dire personal figures.
But National is on 40 in the last public poll, which is far from weak.
They do have a partner problem, but it’s understood internal polling from both parties has fluctuated from week to week, with Labour consistently in front, though not always by much, and that gap in the closed polls may have narrowed.
That means there’s movement in a soft centre and as we’ve seen in MMP, weird and wacky things can happen at election time.
If National holds its ground, Bridges is safe as houses, to be frank. Because, say it with me now: ‘‘It’s the party vote that counts.’’