Why we’re Lotto Linda Evangelistas
Lotto had a run of bad luck last year.
Punters defied the odds and more people than expected won Powerball. The result was fewer rollovers, and smaller than anticipated prize-pots.
It turns out there’s a large Linda Evangelista-like segment of lottery players who really don’t get out of bed for less than $8 million in prize money.
Evangelista was
the supermodel famously misquoted as saying she wouldn’t get out of bed for less than US$10,000 a day.
Research has shown people are more motivated to play lotteries when prizes are bigger, so the $42m on offer yesterday evening should have had the Lotto machines running hot.
Lotto proved the truth of this in its past two financial years.
In the 12 months to the end of June 2018, we collectively spent $1.25 billion on tickets.
But the following year that dropped to $1.18b because the unexpectedly high number of powerball winners kept the average jackpot down to just $7.8m.
Large jackpots grab people’s attention more than smaller ones.
It’s hard to argue there’s any more sense in wasting money on a one in 38 million chance of winning $42m than there is on buying a one in 38 million chance of winning $7.8m. Research suggests winning an extra $34.2m wouldn’t make the winner appreciably happier than winning $7.8m.
Better to play when the jackpot is smaller, if you have to play at all. Fewer people will be vying to share the money with you.
But of course, many people focus on the amount of money on offer, not the odds of winning it.
Humans are rotten at grasping big numbers like extremely long odds, and they have semimystical beliefs, including that the universe has a soft spot for them.
We’re also rotten at comparing odds in different circumstances.
People buy lottery tickets with an infinitesimal chance of success, and then do things that have a far higher chance of changing their lives, such as speeding on motorways, or cutting safety corners at work.
Lottery researcher Mark Griffiths from Nottingham University in England – says we should not be afraid that winning large sums of money will ruin our lives.
‘‘The research ... suggests that huge jackpot winners do not suffer negatively as a result of winning.’’