Why NZ risks becoming a Covid-free cul-de-sac

Only three months and five days ago New Zealand went into level 4 lockdown, less than a month after its first recorded case of Covid-19. The plan was to defeat the virus by cutting the chain of transmission. To do that the Government crafted a clever and effective wartime-style fear campaign: ‘‘Unite against Covid-19’’, invoking sacrifice and the need for all New Zealanders to do their bit as part of the ‘‘team of 5 million’’.

The policy suite was familiar – a variation has been used in many countries – social distancing, self-isolation, most businesses closed, restricted domestic movement and closed borders.

These actions undoubtedly helped to stop the disease in its tracks, for which the Government deserves considerable credit. Even more than that, the centrepiece wage subsidy was well designed: paying cash up front and applying basically to all workers in qualifying workplaces.

It was much better designed than the overly bureaucratic and burdensome scheme cooked up in Australia. There is and will still be a big spike in the jobless rate, but undoubtedly the numbers will much fewer than there would have been otherwise.

Yet, unless a second wave of Covid sees the globe drift into a Mad Max-type world, with New Zealand becoming a beacon of civilisation, we can’t simply live shut off forever.

But if the last two weeks of border cocks-ups and mismanagement have told us anything it’s that the public appetite for risk when it comes to re-importation of Covid is virtually non-existent. And that is a political problem for the Government.

First, because it now appears many voters are already irritated that there are new cases coming in through the quarantine and self-isolation system at all – despite that being a sign the system is basically working.

Second, having attained Covid-free status, there will be no political excuses for not maintaining it. And that now creates a risk that Aotearoa could simply become a Covid-free cul-de-sac at the bottom of the world.

If the public is that irritated over infected people getting past the border, what will be the tolerance for risk around opening the border with Australia, which now appears to be suffering a second wave of the disease, particularly in Victoria?

The prime minister has consistently said there will be new cases in NZ from time to time, and we shouldn’t be unrealistic. She is right.

But the lockdown ‘‘sacrifice’’ that we were all asked to make was premised on getting rid of Covid, even if that was more implied than explicit at the start of lockdown.

This all means that, irony of ironies, the Government has created a rod for its own back, finding itself leading a New Zealand public proud of its achievement and wary of interacting with a world where the disease is perhaps suppressed, but not eliminated – such as Australia.

Opening the border with Australia will be a priority of whichever party finds itself holding the Treasury benches after the September 19 election – there are too many personal and business connections for it to remain shut for too long. Until a fortnight ago, it looked as if it might happen before the election. Now that timetable looks much less likely.

The release of various Covid documents on Friday showed that the Government is aware of the costs of moving slowly. It ignored the directorgeneral of health’s advice to keep NZ in level 2 until near the end of this month, preferring to get life back to normal.

NZ First has claimed credit for some of that, but the hard heads in Labour also understood that while a state of emergency was one thing, ongoing privation would wear thin with the public very quickly.

At the moment both the Government and the Opposition seem to be in a race for which of them can be more punitive towards returning New Zealanders.

The Government is looking into putting people into detention in hotels and then charging them for it; the Opposition is trying to rustle up fear that people might not be behaving in isolation and quarantine facilities. Both are gearing towards the election.

But after September 19, New Zealand will have to start working out how to open up to the world, and what sort of testing and tracing measures will need to be in place to get trans-Tasman travel going again.

Otherwise, we could find ourselves in a comfortable national quarantine of our own making, too scared to re-engage with the rest of the world for fear of losing the war against Covid, which could turn out to be a pyrrhic victory anyway.

Labour understood that while a state of emergency was one thing, ongoing privation would wear thin with the public very quickly.