‘Disruption and disorder’ in foreign affairs

New Zealand’s place in the world is increasingly threatened as the post-World War II international order collapses and a power shift between the US and China squeezes countries in the middle.

This ‘‘turbulent’’ picture of the world comes from newly released briefings to new Cabinet ministers written by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (Mfat), the Defence Force, and intelligence agencies the Security Intelligence Service (SIS) and Government Security Communications Bureau (GCSB).

Mfat has written of its concern about ‘‘new levels of disruption, disorder and risk’’, which have been exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic.

‘‘Many of the assumptions about global and regional affairs that have underpinned our foreign policy for the last 75 years are coming under real and sustained pressure,’’ the Mfat briefing reads.

‘‘The post-World War II global order is receding and no new order is yet emerging to replace it. But it is clear that the future will not look like the recent past.’’

Of particular concern to foreign policy were the ‘‘power shifts’’ occurring between US and

China, with a contest in trade and technology a key risk; a rulesbased system under pressure from ‘‘country-first’’ political agendas; economic development stretching the planet’s limits, causing climate change; and increased trade protectionism.

Major powers – the briefing did not specify which – were increasingly unwilling to let forums such as Apec and the East Asia Summit have a say in their strategic and economic interests.

‘‘The US will continue to play a vital role in our security and prosperity.

‘‘New Zealand’s relationship with China is significant, and multi-dimensional, but also enormously asymmetrical.’’

Mfat’s new minister, Nanaia Mahuta, may be required to travel abroad for meetings before border restrictions are lifted, to ensure this country’s voice is heard.

‘‘The biggest risk for New Zealand’s international influence is a scenario where a critical mass of countries resume physical meetings, including at foreign minister level, but New Zealand’s border restrictions remain.’’

The Defence Force, in its briefing to the new minister, Peeni Henare, cited areas of concern as the Pacific, the Korean Peninsula and Chinese military moves into the South China Sea.