Chance of dry weather for Christmas Day gets better going north
Almost all the country looks likely to get some rain in the middle of next week, with early indications suggesting the chance of showers, or even rain on Christmas Day, are higher in inland areas and further south.
But there is a slim chance the north of the country, where soils are considerably drier than usual, could get some decent rain towards the end of next week.
Any possibility of that happening is thought to depend on whether the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Yasa – which smashed through Fiji overnight – end up bringing warm, humid air down over New Zealand.
The odds of that happening are low but can’t be ruled out.
If it were to happen the rain, though welcome, could be falling next Friday.
For now, MetService considers Northland most likely to get showers next Thursday, with no other suggestion of any rain on the horizon.
For Auckland, where there are concerns about the amount of water being used after restrictions were removed on Monday, MetService is forecasting rain for Thursday, then dry weather for Christmas.
Yesterday morning, MetService meteorologist Lewis Ferris said the rain expected during the middle of next week would be brought by a low coming across the Tasman Sea.
‘‘At this point the thing to note is there is a low in the Tasman Sea. That’s what you are seeing with the country getting pretty much rain everywhere on Thursday.’’
That low was expected to still be quite far out by the end of Tuesday.
‘‘Then it moves quite quickly. We see it spreading rain basically everywhere through the Wednesday, Thursday period,’’ Ferris said.
While the models were looking ‘‘pretty consistent’’ for now in forecasting, the low would pass over the country on Thursday, it was not impossible the timing could shift. Beyond that, details for Friday varied.
‘‘Into Friday, there’s a little bit of divergence as to what places hold onto a bit of that wet weather.’’
While the low in the Tasman Sea was the feature most likely to affect New Zealand’s weather in the lead-up to
Christmas, there was a ‘‘very minimal’’ chance of some impact from the remains of Cyclone Yasa.
Earlier, there had been considerable uncertainty about the track Yasa would take, with some indications it might make it down to New Zealand, Ferris said.
But there was ‘‘a little more cohesion’’ among models by yesterday morning, suggesting it would keep to the north of this country.
‘‘At this point if there was any impact (from the cyclone remnants), the most likely would be heavy rain around the top of the North Island.’’
If that were to happen it would be some time between Wednesday and Friday next week.
For now, forecasts for the weather on Christmas Day were being produced by computers.
That would change on Sunday when MetService meteorologists became involved.
Areas forecast by MetService yesterday morning to be dry on Christmas Day include: Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Coromandel, Bay of Plenty, Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay, Taranaki, Whanganui, Wellington, Marlborough, Nelson.
Areas forecast to have showers: Rotorua, Taupo¯, Taihape, Manawatu, Wairarapa, Buller, Westland, Canterbury, north Otago, Central Otago, Southern Lakes.
Areas forecast to have rain: Dunedin, Clutha, Southland.