How Black Caps need the Big Three to stumble

Newly minted as the world’s top-ranked test cricket team, now they wait, and hope.

New Zealand won’t play another test until June at the earliest (a mooted series in England), and may not know for two months if one of those will be the inaugural World Test Championship final at Lord’s – Covid-19 permitting.

For the Black Caps’ revered captain and top-ranked batsman Kane Williamson it means some welcome downtime with his wife and three-week-old daughter, maybe some Twenty20 cricket for the Knights, and only brief glances at the Australia versus India tests which are so vital to their chances of a return to Lord’s.

‘‘I’ll watch some of it [Australia v India] when I’m perhaps feeding my baby girl or changing some nappies – and it is always great cricket to watch – but I won’t watch all of it,’’ Williamson said after their 2-0 series win over Pakistan.

‘‘It’s not in our hands at this point in time. We’ll reflect on the cricket we’ve played and I’m sure we’ll enjoy that and take a moment. But we can’t control that. It would be nice if things fell our way, but we’ll have to wait and see.’’

It would be nice. But what are their chances? Reasonable, you could say, although an AustraliaIndia final remains the clear favourite and there are complicated permutations. Remember the ICC world test rankings, which the Black Caps have scaled for the first time, having nothing to do with the WTC.

Now, cricket fans marvelling at their skipper’s batsmanship, or the whirlwind rise of Kyle Jamieson, must barrack for the old enemies Australia and England to help ruin India’s chances.

Or, become Indian and South African fans and hope they can roll Australia which would set up an India-Black Caps decider.

The two WTC finalists are decided on highest points percentage from their designated six home and away series, which for New Zealand is exactly 70 and is the magic number for Australia (77 per cent) and India (72 per cent) to stay ahead of. England (61 per cent) need a near miracle, including a 3-0 or 4-0 result in India next month.

Put simply, New Zealand will miss out if both these scenarios happen: Australia win three of their five tests against India (home) and South Africa (away), and India win four of six against Australia (away) and England (home).

The 1-1 split of the first two tests across the Tasman was not good for the Black Caps, but also showed Australia are no certainties, and maybe even India are a better chance of achieving the above requirements.

Then, whisper it quietly, there is this scenario uncovered by cricket statistician Deepu Narayanan. If Australia beat India 3-1, India beat England 4-0 and South Africa beat Australia 2-1, it would provide more Kiwi fan agony: India 70.83 per cent

(510 points out of 720), Australia

70.33 per cent (422/600) and New Zealand 70 per cent (420/600). Ouch.

The one asterisk is the three Australia v South Africa tests scheduled for February-March, the same time Australia’s T20 squad will be in New Zealand. Those tests remain unconfirmed amid Covid-19, with South Africa, Perth and the United Arab Emirates potential venues.

South Africa successfully staged two tests against Sri Lanka which was encouraging, but if that South Africa series was cancelled, Australia would need to beat India in Sydney or Brisbane to stay ahead of New Zealand’s 70 per cent.