Scientists question Government urgency over Covid variant data
Senior scientists have questioned the Government’s decision to rush out data suggesting the new UK variant of Covid19 has a 30 per cent increased mortality rate.
The data, presented by the Prime Minister at Friday’s Downing Street briefing, suggested the variant first spotted at the end of last year may be deadlier than the original strain.
But several scientists said yesterday that it was too early to draw ‘‘strong conclusions’’ from the data.
Dr Mike Tildesley, a member of Sage subgroup the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (Spi-M), said: ‘‘I was surprised the news had been announced at a news conference.
‘‘It seems to have gone up a little bit from about 10 people per thousand to about 13 which is a small rise but it’s based on a relatively small amount of data.
He added: ‘‘I would be wanting to wait for a week or two more, monitoring a little bit more before we draw really strong conclusions about this. I just worry that where we report things pre-emptively where the data are not really particularly strong.’’
Public Health England medical director Dr Yvonne Doyle said that it is still not ‘‘absolutely clear’’ the new variant is more deadly than the original strain.
She said more work was needed to determine whether it may be associated with ‘‘a higher degree of mortality’’ as stated by Boris Johnson.
‘‘It is too early to say,’’ she told the BBC Radio 4 programme. ‘‘It is small numbers of cases.’’
Scientists have pointed out that while the new variant shows a relative increase in mortality rates, the absolute risks for older people are far higher than for those in lower age brackets.
For those in their 60s the risk of dying if infected with Covid goes from
10 people in every 1000 under the old variant, to 13 in a 1000 with the new strain.
But for those in their 80s the risk of dying increases more significantly, going from 80 in 1000 to 100 in 1000 and for those in their 90s from 200 in 1000 to
270 in 1000.
Professor David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk, told
‘‘Based on the findings there is a huge difference in the impact of the new strain depending on how old you are.’’
Horby defended the Government’s decision to announce the news.
‘‘If we were not telling anybody about this news we would be accused of covering it up.’’