The weather, according to Herman
There’s a forecasting fight going on – and it’s pitched Herman the weather predicting tortoise against the scientific minds at the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research.
One is predicting a colder than normal winter with some frosts, the other no colder than average and even some summer like temperatures in April.
For those in Herman’s camp – which includes owner Alf Hoyle – get the warm winter clothes ready.
Hoyle said Herman, named before her gender was known, went into her winter hibernation on March 26 this year.
‘‘Very early. Normally it’s around April 6,’’ he said.
‘‘From past experience it means it’s probably going to be a colder winter than usual. She’s gone down ten days early. A clear sign to me it’s going to be colder and expect a few frosts.’’
Hoyle said he expected Herman to wake from her winter slumber around September 5. He said in the 60 years he has owned Herman, she’d never got a forecast wrong.
In the opposing camp is NIWA meteorologist and forecaster Ben Noll. He said NIWA was set to release its long range forecast for the three months from April this week, but agreed to provide a sneak preview.
‘‘We’re not anticipating a colder than average three-month period,’’ he said.
‘‘More periods of warmer conditions, some humidity and temperatures summer like [in April.] We’re not expecting a significantly colder winter.’’
Hoyle, however, has always had faith in Herman.
‘‘She’s been going longer than NIWA,’’ he said.
He has owned Herman for more than half a century. He originally imported her from the Welsh Mountain Zoo, where a fire had destroyed their records. He believes she was between 20 and 30 years old when her got her. Hoyle said he believed Herman is around 90 years old now.