Fossil fuel production warning
Countries are planning to produce more than double the amount of oil, coal and gas over the next decade than can be used if the world is to avoid climate change, a UN report says.
It warns that production plans are ‘‘dangerously out of sync’’ with the Paris Agreement temperature limits.
It also says the plans are inconsistent with pledges by countries to reach net-zero emissions by the middle of this century and that climate targets must be matched by ‘‘concrete’’ action to reduce the production and burning of fossil fuels.
The UN Environment Programme (Unep) and research institutions examined the plans of 15 big fossil fuel-producing countries and found that they would collectively produce about 110 per cent more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C, and 45 per cent more than consistent with 2C.
Governments’ plans and projections would lead to about 240 per cent more coal, 57 per cent more oil and 71 per cent more gas produced in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5C.
It says India and Russia are planning to increase coal production by 2030 compared with 2019. Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, India, Mexico, Saudi Arabia and the US are planning to increase oil and gas production over the same period.
The UK and Indonesia are the only two countries assessed that are projecting declines in oil and gas production by 2030.
The report says the UK’s tax breaks for the oil and gas industry and government policy of maximising economic recovery of the two fuels resulted in steadily increasing production between 2014 and 2019.
However, it acknowledges that the UK Oil and Gas Authority projects oil production to decline by 58 per cent for oil and 70 per cent for gas from 2021 to 2040.
It also notes that this year the UK became the first G20 country to end public finance for fossil fuel production overseas.
The report says that countries have allocated more than dollars 300 billion of new public funding for fossil fuel activities since the beginning of the pandemic, more than they provided for clean energy.
Antonio Guterres, the UN secretary-general, said: ‘‘As this report starkly shows, there is still a long way to go to a clean energy future. ‘‘It is urgent that all remaining public financiers as well as private finance, including commercial banks and asset managers, switch their funding from coal to renewables to promote full decarbonisation of the power sector and access to renewable energy for all.’’
Ploy Achakulwisut, a lead author of the report and a scientist at the Stockholm Environment Institute, said: ‘‘The research is clear: global coal, oil and gas production must start declining immediately and steeply to be consistent with limiting long-term warming to 1.5C.’’
‘The research is clear: global coal, oil and gas production must start declining immediately and steeply to be consistent with limiting long-term warming to 1.5C.’’
Ploy Achakulwisut
Stockholm Environment Institute