No plan B for missing 90 per cent target
MAYOR’S PLEA TO HAMILTONIANS
The Government had to deliver a plan yesterday for getting out of alert levels, lockdowns and learning to live with Covid-19. Standing in the Beehive banquet hall with sun streaming in through the windows, the prime minister delivered one.
The new traffic light system which will replace the current alert levels framework looks complicated at first blush, but it will probably be simpler to use once people are used to it.
For the vaccinated, the world will essentially go into a new phase. The green-orange-red-light system is effectively the current level 1, and then effectively levels 1.5 and a level 2.5.
But the new rules will only take effect when each of the district health board areas across the motu reaches 90 per cent vaccination rate of eligible populations. It is a tall order. If achieved, it will give New Zealand one of the highest vaccination rates in the world.
Once the three DHBs in Auckland have reached 90 per cent, Auckland will go into one of the new settings: red, which is effectively a level 2.5 for the vaccinated. Shops, bars and restaurants will have similar restrictions to level 2, but some place such as hairdressers and gyms will be closed.
The rest of the country will likely go into the orange-light setting once 90 per cent vaccination coverage has been reached.
For all businesses that operate with vaccine certificates it will basically be business as usual.
What this plan makes clear is that the unvaccinated will miss out on a lot of things. This will also apply to businesses where people are in close contact, such as hairdressers, beauty salons, gyms.
If you need to go to the shops, you’ll be fine. Want to go and have a drink or a coffee? Probably not. This might well be the lot of the unvaccinated for years.
The toughest part of the announcement, undoubtedly, was for Auckland. Aucklanders have now been locked down for more than two months and could be looking at a further four to six weeks at least.
Although the fact that Covid is only in Auckland and Waikato – at the moment – is good for everyone who lives outside those areas, it also greatly complicates things for the Government.
Instead of transitioning the whole country to the new system once 90 per cent vaccination is reached, there will be a period during which Auckland is locked down, and then possibly under different restrictions to the rest of the country.
The bottom line is that it’s rubbish to be in Auckland or Hamilton right now, but dialling down restrictions there before everyone had the chance to get their second jab would be both inequitable and probably lead to a much higher rate of cases.
There’s just no way around it. Even
ACT’s proposed freedom day is December 1.
While National leader Judith Collins was clearly very unhappy about Auckland’s lockdown being extended, there wasn’t much by way of an alternative proposed. National’s plan would still have restrictions based on current vaccination rates.
The system itself, which appears quite complicated on paper, actually seems like it will be easier to understand once we’re living with it. Because it doesn’t require lockdowns, it appears more likely that any given traffic light setting will remain for a longish period.
For people living under the vaccine pass regime, life will basically be normal but with masks.
As part of the package the Government will double some of its economic support payments to business.
The biggest question is what will Jacinda Ardern and co do if a number of DHBs can’t reach the vaccination rate? The prime minister’s view is simple: the fact that you won’t be able to get a haircut, go to a cafe, get a beer or go to church will tip a lot of people into getting vaccinated.
But having an aspiration to get to 90 per cent and getting there are two different things. Already it is unclear when the certificates will be available – they’ve now been pushed back from November to December. Without those the whole
If you need to go to the shops, you’ll be fine. Want to go and have a drink or a coffee? Probably not. This might well be the lot of the unvaccinated for years.
system won’t be going anywhere.
There is also the very real possibility that some health boards won’t get to 90 per cent. At the moment there isn’t a plan B, but the PM did indicate the Government would be ‘‘pragmatic’’ about it. So if a couple of DHBs hit 88.9 per cent it might be OK. But what if some get only to 83 per cent?
Ardern’s view is that most people who are not inoculated aren’t anti-vaxxers, they just haven’t got around to it, or live in parts of the country where they think Covid-19 won’t affect them – hence why vaccine certificates will be necessary.
With Delta, there was a determination to get rid of it – and no real plan B – but despite our best efforts this didn’t happen. There were 127 new cases yesterday.
Overall the traffic light plan looks good and proportionate to the risk of Covid-19. But it will be the journey of getting there over the next couple of months that will be messy and tough. And it’ll be really naff for people who have decided to not get vaccinated.
Hamilton mayor Paula Southgate is urging all city residents to ‘‘play their part’’ and bring the city up to the Government’s new 90 per cent double-dose Covid vaccination threshold by Christmas.
But her exhortations may be in vain, with other districts within the Waikato District Health Board’s territory lagging far behind the city in the inoculation stakes. And Hamilton-based National list MP David Bennett is already waving the white flag, and has declared the target ‘‘unachievable’’ in the Waikato.
And whether health bosses at Waikato DHB think it’s possible is unknown after the DHB failed to respond to numerous requests for an interview from the Waikato Times.
As of yesterdaymorning, just over 70 per cent of Hamilton’s eligible population were fully vaccinated. Similar numbers have been clocked up in the ThamesCoromandel and Waipa districts.
But down the road in the South Waikato district, it was 53 per cent, while in the Otorohanga and Ruapehu districts it was just 52 per cent. Whether the DHB-wide 90 per cent target could be hit and the Alert Level 3 lockdown lifted by Christmas with those areas so far behind was difficult to say, Southgate said.
She and her team were still analysing the Government’s new ‘‘traffic light’’ system that will replace the alert level system when 90 per cent of each DHB’s eligible population is double-dosed.
‘‘The devil, as always, is in the detail,’’ she said.
‘‘Hamilton is doing pretty well with the vaccination numbers.
‘‘We have a little way to go before we can reach the 90 per cent for first doses, and then it should just be a matter of time before everyone gets their second.’’
‘‘Will we be able to have a Christmas? I don’t yet know. I certainly hope so.
‘‘We know how it feels now to lose a holiday, because we were all looking forward to having a bit of freedom from lockdown during Labour Weekend – and we have lost that chance now.
‘‘It’s critical for Christmas that every single person plays their part and gets vaccinated.
‘‘It really is that simple. We are all counting on it.’’
The new ‘‘traffic light’’ system appeared to be a good attempt to simplify the country’s approach to dealing with Covid outbreaks in the community, she said.
‘‘I’m still not too sure how it will work in practice. I would like to learn more detail on localised lockdowns – does that mean suburb by suburb? We will have to find out.
Vaccination certificates also needed more detail.
‘‘I’d like to be reassured that they can’t be reproduced illegally. The little card with the double doses looks like it could be faked pretty easily, so it will have to be something that is a little stronger than that.
‘‘The other question is how will they be used? Will every business have to have someone on the door, double checking the certificates of everyone who goes in?
‘‘The main thing is that we now have the 90 per cent target, which has been made black and white today.
‘‘We know what the target is. In the meantime we still have level 3 in the Waikato, so I am asking everyone to keep social distancing, keep wearing the masks, including in parks and open spaces.
‘‘If we all keep playing by the rules we can still win and have a Christmas.’’
Bennett appeared certain Christmas was doomed.
‘‘[The new system] is very confusing and uncertain. Ninety per cent is unrealistic as well.’’
Bennett said ‘‘the rural component’’ of the region’s population would have particular difficulty reaching the target.
‘‘We can’t all be lumped in together . . . A more realistic target would be 85 per cent, and the country needs a date for the lockdown to end as well.’’
Asked whether he thought his approach to the Covid outbreak might be criticised as defeatist, Bennett said ‘‘it’s just the reality of what we are dealing with’’.
The Government’s traffic light approach for combating future outbreaks was based on an outdated elimination ideology, he said.
‘‘You just watch. They will change their tune in a month.’’
Hamilton Central Business Association general manager Vanessa Williams said if she was forced to make a bet on the vaccination outcome, she would place her money on ‘‘a win by Christmas’’.
‘‘I would be unbelievably disappointed if we can’t get to 90 per cent by Christmas.
‘‘We are sitting a little way down the leader table at the moment.
‘‘I can’t say whether my prediction is just based on hope or reality. It might be a little more hope, I think.’’
The Waikato was ‘‘sitting between a rock and a hard place’’ in terms of the Government’s Covid approach, she said.
‘‘Auckland have got their target close. Further down south has a way out with the traffic light system. We just seem to have the worst of both worlds here at the moment.’’
Waikato Chambers of Commerce chief executive Don Good said he welcomed the possibility of greater freedoms for people in the region.
‘‘It’s great to see the Government come up with a plan, it’s long overdue.’’ However, he did have come caveats. He said businesses needed more detail, especially around issues like how Hamilton would be separated from areas like Raglan, and about vaccine certificates.
‘‘I’m assuming it’ll be like the sign in for buildings, on a mobile phone.
‘‘But for large gatherings, like Fieldays, how they’re going to cope with 30,000 will be interesting.’’
Good also said the possibility of fewer restrictions coming ahead of Christmas was especially welcome.
‘‘For the four main industries that have been affected most, events, retail, tourism and hospitality, they will be welcoming the loosening of restrictions,’’ he said.
‘‘This quarter is possibly the most crucial for them, and their survival.’’
Despite multiple phone calls and emails requesting comment, Waikato DHB failed to provide comment.