Welcome reality check on earthquake risk

Afew weeks ago, I somewhat nervously decided to go on a business trip to New York. Despite being vaxxed to the max, I figured that with the six flights required for the round-trip journey, the numerous meetings I’d be taking, the subway rides and socialising, I’d finally end up getting Covid. But I went anyway. I masked up as much as I could, including during a sold-out concert by The Who at Madison Square Garden. I had a blast in the United States and came home free of the virus.

We weigh up these sorts of risks every day, our choices a trade-off between one potential outcome and another. It’s a highly subjective process influenced by a range of factors including the credibility of sources dispensing advice about risk.

So it was refreshing last week to hear a bureaucrat from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) advising us to get some perspective on the risk posed by the country’s 4200 earthquake-prone buildings. MBIE building performance manager Dave Gittings pointed out that the ‘‘annual fatality risk’’ of a building with a new building standard (NBS) rating of 34% or less is one in 40,000 – 100,000.

In comparison, Gittings pointed out, the risk of dying while flying on an aeroplane is one in 700,000, and the risk of driving a car carries a fatality risk of one in 20,000.

In the scheme of things, sitting behind a desk in an earthquake-prone building in central Wellington is far less likely to get you killed than your daily commute.

MBIE has updated its seismic risk guidance on earthquakeprone buildings, advising that they are not ‘‘imminently dangerous’’ and can stay occupied while building owners work towards remediating them. This is an overdue and much needed clarification. There has been far too much angst in Wellington among tenants, employees and owners over whether people should still be in buildings that require remediation. It has dented the psyche of the city.

I live in a 12th-floor apartment building and I don’t worry about it.

I’m not reckless about it. The building has a very good NBS rating, is insured and as a member of the governance board, I share responsibility for its maintenance. We know what to do in an emergency. Wellingtonians should value and enjoy those buildings that do need strengthening, while they are being upgraded. Natural hazards are an ever-present threat we need to prepare for and risk assessments change over time. But if we took into account the relative risk of our day-to-day actions, we’d probably make better decisions and worry less in the process.

This is an overdue and much needed clarification.