Patience is a virtue and other lessons from 2020 so far

This year has taught investors and market commentators many things, as periods of turmoil often do. One important lesson has been a stark reminder that it’s foolish to believe you can time the market over the short-term.

Having been down more than 30 per cent at one point this year, world shares have recovered much of their losses and are now close to breaking even this year.

The NZX 50 is down just 0.8 per cent in 2020, while the S&P 500 in the US is only 1.4 per cent lower. However, the rebound was equally as sharp as the decline, and if one had missed the five strongest days of the year things would look very different.

For the NZX 50, the five best days saw an average gain of 4.2 per cent, and without them the marginal decline this year turns into a more substantial 19.3 per cent fall.

It’s even more pronounced in the US, with an average gain of 7.6 per cent for the S&P 500’s five best days. Missing those would’ve decimated your returns, turning the 1.4 per cent fall into a whopping 30.9 per cent loss.

This highlights just how difficult it is to time the market in the short-term. Even if you were good enough to go into the February bear market with high levels of cash, you’ve only benefited from that if you were also good enough to know when to jump back in. Even worse, if you panicked during the first half of March and sold near the bottom (or switched your KiwiSaver from a growth fund to a conservative fund), you’ll have almost certainly missed out on the vast bulk of the rebound.

This is the risk we take when we misguidedly think we can predict where markets will go over the short term. Even professionals struggle to time the market with consistent success.

It’s fair to say there are range of views about how to approach markets at this juncture. Some investors are happy to stay the course, taking the view markets will do what they do in the interim but comfortable in the knowledge that good businesses will prove their worth on a longer-term basis.

Others are more nervous, and they recall being highly uncomfortable during the March volatility. This group sees the rebound of the last few months as a second chance to sell.

The latter perspective is understandable. After all, virus cases are spiking in the US, the earnings season might not live up to forecasts, and we still have the US election to get past later this year. Then again, the economic impact of the pandemic might not be as bad as expected, or the immense monetary and fiscal stimulus could offset this.

There’s nothing wrong with derisking your portfolio a little, but with interest rates where they are, you don’t get paid to sit on the sidelines anymore. You also risk missing out on any future gains from equity markets, in case the downturn you’re waiting for never comes or if you blink and miss it, as in April.

If your longer-term objectives have changed or your asset allocation is out of whack, then by all means — adjust your strategy. But if you’re simply trying to sell high and buy low, be aware of how difficult this can be. This year has taught us that sometimes doing nothing is the most sensible strategy.