Booming migration trend may be close to peaking
New Zealand’s booming migration and tourism arrivals set a record for July this year, driven by an influx of Chinese and Australians, though economists say the net migration trend may be close to a peak.
Annual net migration reached 69,000 in July, down slightly on June which had an annual net gain of 69,100 but setting a new record for the month with a 16 per cent gain on July 2015. The fall from June snaps a 23- month run of record- breaking annual net gains in migrants, Statistics NZ said. The increase compared to last July was driven by more migrants from China, South Africa and Australia.
At the same time, overseas shortterm visitor arrivals reached 3.34 million in the year ended July 30, up 11 per cent on the year earlier.
A swelling population stoking more activity and record inflows of tourists have helped offset the impact of a rural sector reeling from weak dairy prices. At the same time, a rising population has posed problems for policymakers by fuelling demand for an already- stretched housing market in Auckland, while restraining wage growth. The nation’s per- capita growth has been anaemic.
The data show the inflow of net migration fell slightly with the seasonally adjusted monthly gain at 5600, down from a peak of 6200 in November last year and below the average 5700 per month since then.
The Treasury said in the Budget that it expected annual net migration would peak in June at 70,700, before returning to the long- run average of 12,000 by June 2019.
“Net migration i s continuing to run around record levels, but there is some further evidence net migration could be close to peaking, with departures elevated,” said ASB Bank economist Daniel Snowden.
“We expect inflows from Australia to slow as the Australian labour market continues its recovery. However, some of that slack is being taken up by students from China and India ( a significant and growing number of
69,000 annual net migration in July.
Net 46% settle in Auckland, 9.9% Canterbury, 4.7% Wellington and 3.6% Waikato.
3.34 million annual overseas short- term visitor arrivals. which are choosing to stay),” Snowden said.
Most holidaymakers came from Australia, with 52,384 Australians travelling to New Zealand in the month. Business visitors rose 5.7 per cent in July from a year earlier to 22,208, and increased 3.9 per cent on an annual basis to 271,968, two- thirds of whom came from across the Tasman.
Indian holidaymakers, a market Tourism NZ wants to grow in an effort to bridge the nation’s shoulder season, rose 52 per cent to 512 in the month of July and were up 24 per cent to 24,752 in the year. Picture / L'Officiel, Tourism NZ Insurance Australia Group’s New Zealand division posted a 38 per cent slide in annual profit as rampant competition for commercial customers drove down prices and as the country’s biggest general insurer faced a higher risk margin on the Canterbury earthquakes. Sydneybased IAG’s New Zealand unit includes Lumley Insurance, NZI, AMI and State brands on this side of the Tasman. The local division posted an insurance profit of A$ 135 million in the 12 months ended June 30, down from A$ 216m a year earlier. Gross written premiums ( GWP) fell 3.7 per cent to A$ 2.18 billion, with business GWP dropping 8 per cent in kiwi dollar terms as heightened competition saw insurers discount commercial product lines.