South Africa gone but not forgotten
Springboks will find a way to again be a force in world rugby, but not tonight
The gap between the All Blacks and the chasing pack will close. It doesn’t necessarily feel like that now and, by the end of the test in Christchurch, it may feel even less like that.
Recent history says there’s unlikely to be more than one try separating the All Blacks and Springboks when the final whistle blows. The All Blacks may be well in front, as long as they can stand up to the inevitable physical onslaught they will face, because they have the superior skills and organisation to stretch away with a degree of comfort.
Knowing which marker to trust — form or history — is difficult. Adding to the complexity is the emotional state of the Boks. They are getting desperate.
They need to start delivering performances that show they are at least settling on a game plan that everyone — coaching staff and players — are buying in to.
As a consequence, All Blacks coach Steve Hansen i s going with history.
He knows the pride within the Boks and knows they are stacked with experienced test performers such as Eben Etzebeth, Francois Louw, Adriaan Strauss and Bryan Habana.
There are a few new and emerging faces in there, too, who give the Boks a bit of an unknown dimension — some energy and enthusiasm. To underestimate them would be a terrible mistake and not one the All Blacks are likely to make.
But history might be a better longterm rather than short- term guide. The Boks, like the Wallabies, have so much to fix and develop that it’s hard to see them winning tonight.
South Africa need to find a style that works for them under coach Allister Coetzee. They need to build their experience and leadership in the wake of a post- World Cup exodus and need to build their confidence in themselves and each other.
History says they will get there. Whatever problems they have now, they will fix them and their demise is by no means permanent.
“Maybe that has been part of their problem so far, they are not sure how to play,” said Hansen. “Most of the side is from the Lions and there is a certain style South Africa play and it is bruising, physical and reasonably direct. The Lions don’t play like that.
“When you come to mould your team, sometimes it takes a little while to get them to where you need them to be because you are changing the style and I am not sure which one of those styles Allister wants to play. They will get it right one of these days soon and, when they do, look out.”
The question is how much time it’s going to take and, while they will certainly make up ground on the All Blacks, can they develop to the point where they regularly beat New Zealand?
It’s not just South Africa asking that question. Australia must be wondering the same thing.
There’s no question they will improve and develop greater cohesion and confidence in the next month or so to the point that they will be a significantly different side to the one they were in August when they come to Eden Park for the final Bledisloe test of the year.
Both the Boks and Wallabies can legitimately argue that one of the key differences between them and the All Blacks is experience and leadership.
New Zealand were able, through Hansen’s astute management, to Ben Smith Israel Dagg Malakai Fekitoa Ryan Crotty Julian Savea Beauden Barrett Aaron Smith Kieran Read Ardie Savea Jerome Kaino Sam Whitelock Brodie Retallick Owen Franks Dane Coles Joe Moody