Weather to decide punting luck

Here we go again on the weather, but if the Weather Bureau i s half right about rain overnight and what may fall in the Bay Of Plenty for much of today then the betting landscape should change dramatically.

The Tauranga course should be capable of handling a reasonable level of rain, but the level we are threatened with could be a different matter.

Assuming the bureau i s on the money, Eletist ( No 10, R3) should be capable of turning around his latest form on decent tracks. Six of his seven wins have been on slow or heavy tracks, but as the third event this is early in the programme, so watch the conditions do, in fact, get close to those ratings.

If they do he and visitor Aide Memoire ( No 3) will be to the fore.

From six starts Gata ( No 14, R2) has clocked up four seconds, three of them on rain- affected tracks. His laststart second was on good ground at Ellerslie, so regardless of the track he should be difficult to beat. Polar Secret ( No 10) looked pretty good finishing second at Ruakaka when resuming.

Lizzie L'Amour ( No 8, R4) looks a mare of promise and being by Zabeel she should continue to improve from this point. She has won her only start on a dead track and her only outing in the slow, so conditions should not faze her.

She was not far from Stradivarius last start on a good surface. El Luchador ( No 1) is a must for all multiple tickets.

Race five is a real puzzle. If the rain does arrive in quantity, It's Bianca ( No 6) is worth each- way consideration. She has drawn a good barrier regardless of what conditions are. Plenty of winning hopes in this, among them Mr Knowitall ( No 1), Brighton ( No 5), City Boy ( No 8) and Good Lookin' Gal ( No 11).

With any level of rain, Julinksy Prince ( No 2, R6) i s going to take some beating in the main race, the $ 100,000 Preston Rowe Paterson Property Valuers WFA. He is good in any conditions, but grows a leg in the rain.

He ran an absolute classic to finish sixth, two lengths away, to Kawi on the middle day at Hastings when resuming from a spell then two weeks later flopped in the Livamol. He has been freshened since and that's the way he goes best.

After his Hastings efforts, El Pescado ( No 4) is a real danger. He also loves the rain and although he has yet to run at Tauranga, that should not be an issue. Mime ( No 8) and Amurula ( No 6) won't mind softening of the surface and it's difficult to assess Sound Proposition ( No 5) if there is rain because he has yet to be tested on slow or heavy.

Race seven is another difficult race to weigh up, particularly without knowing the actual conditions. A good each- way prospect is Ultimata ( No 13), a Zabeel mare who gets up to a suitable 1600m. She has good form in the wet and has an outside gate, which will be favourable late on the programme if conditions cut up. McCullum ( No 2) will also be suited if it's wet.

If the punt has been unkind and you need to find the rent in the last you could do worse than each- way on Ekarosa ( No 12, R8). She wasn't sighted when resuming on a decent track, but is likely to be improved and could run a race at odds.

Douro ( No 2) is no slug with rain around and has previously won when resuming from a break. His outside gate will not be a problem. Gumboots ( No 5) is on the improve and drops from 60kg at Ellerslie last start to 57.5kg with an allowance. He likes it wet. Given a fair racing surface — Christchurch has also been promised rain — Mystery Show ( No 3, R7) should go close in the 1000 Guineas at Riccarton. If you doubt that pull up the image of the Soliloquy Stakes at Ellerslie at her last start and re- watch her. Glass Slipper ( No 5) was nearly as good finishing second in the same race. Conditions will decide this race. Victorian jockey Stephen Baster will be out to improve on his stakes race success over the spring carnival with a powerful book of rides at Sandown today.

Since the racing season began in August, Baster has ridden eight winners of which four have come in stakes races.

The biggest came last week, with victory on Awesome Rock in the Emirates Stakes at Flemington.

Today Baster has five stakes- race rides for a variety of trainers, including Godolphin’s Secret Number in the day’s feature, the Zipping Classic ( 2400m).

Baster rode Secret Number in the Melbourne Cup and set a solid tempo, but the horse was beaten a long way out and finished 21st behind winner Almandin.

He is expecting improvement from the Saeed bin Suroor- trained stayer. “I don’t think he got the two miles. I also think the track was a little bit too firm for him.”

Godolphin will also be represented by the bin Suroor- trained Beautiful Romance, who finished seventh in the Melbourne Cup.

Baster hopes the Sandown track won’t be as firm as Flemington.

The Sandown Hillside track hasn’t been raced on since August and track manager Tim Bailey says the surface has not looked in better condition since undergoing a rebuild three years ago.

Bailey applied 5mm of irrigation yesterday, with the weather forecast for anywhere between 2mm and 20mm from midnight.

The Michael Bell- trained Big Orange is the third international horse in the weight- for- age contest, with the three out to join Americain ( 2011) and Au Revoir ( 2014) as previous international winners.

Who Shot Thebarman is chasing successive Zipping Classic wins after recording a seven- length win over Tall Ship last year.

The Chris Waller- trained stayer was the $ 3 favourite yesterday, ahead of So Si Bon at $ 4.80 with Big Orange and Almoonqith at $ 5.

Secret Number was rated a $ 6 chance. Balcairn greyhound trainers Jean and Dave Fahey have turned the New Zealand Cup into their own.

American Warrior's comprehensive victory in Thursday night's $ 100,000 middle- distance feature at Addington was the Faheys' seventh win in the race since 2006.

However, a month ago, a Cup victory was barely on the cards for the Australian import.

“He came over from Australia and got a ticket for not chasing properly in late May,” Dave Fahey said.

“Had he got put out within 10 starts, he would have been put out for a year, so I just sprinted him but I was pretty confident he was cured of it.”

The sprinting caper was certainly obvious in American Warrior's racing style on Thursday, as he dashed to the early leader Zipping Jordan at the winning post the first time before producing his defining skill.

“He's got amazing acceleration from the winning post down to the back straight and he just puts a big gap on them,” said Fahey.

Zipping Jordan was four lengths back in second, giving Rangiora trainer Calum Weir a big day out after Swimming Goat's Galaxy Sprint win.

The cheers from fans soon after the 295m boxes opened said one thing — Swimming Goat was in the lead.

The sprinter has gained a cult following inside and outside the industry after stringing together 23 wins in a row before losing a fortnight ago.

He was back in winning form in last week's semi- finals and Thursday night's victory in the $ 30,000 group one sprint was never in doubt once he found the lead, going on to win by 5 ½ lengths in 17.11.

“There was a bit of pressure off once I saw him jump clean and the six dog [ Wheelchair Norm] just didn't pick it as well as I thought he would.

“So we got an uninterrupted run into the the first corner which i s exactly what we had dreamed about but didn't think would happen.

“He's got a huge following and it's amazing that people in the street know who this dog is.”

The dog's profile has brought the quietly- spoken Rangiora trainer out of his shell as well, as he has adjusted to dealing with the considerable media interest in the dog.

“It's life- changing outside of the sport. Confidence- wise to be able to speak to people I've never met before i s something I've always struggled with and it's been a massive learning experience for me.”