Slow spring gains health

The latest monthly QV House Price Index shows definite signs of value increases slowing. As a quick reminder of where we have come from: just a few months ago, almost every town and city in NZ was rising in value. Auckland had seen a brief dip late last year as the previous round of lending restrictions dented things slightly, but this year, Auckland had then surged away again as had Hamilton and Tauranga and more recently Wellington.

However, in response to new lending restrictions, we have seen signs of heat coming out of the market.

Buyer demand and new listings should have surged ahead in a normal spring pattern, so their weakness suggests people either couldn’t ( or didn’t) want to buy or sell property.

What we have just begun to see in our data is the first signs that both investor activity and value increases are beginning to waver. Yet more evidence that the lending restrictions are hitting the mark.

The latest figures from QV are more evidence of that value growth slowing, but let’s be very clear: we aren’t talking drops in value. I am instead looking for where the increase is slowing.

I have done that by looking at the monthly increase between September and October, compared to the monthly increase between August and September. Wherever the increase was less last month than the month before then we have signs of a slow- down.

By that measure, 61 per cent of the country is slowing. Wellington has attracted headlines suggesting it is “the new Auckland” even though increases in value over the past year of 21.1 per cent are much less than Tauranga and Hamilton. But in these latest numbers Wellington takes the biggest hit of all the main centres, with the rate of increase in values in Wellington City slowing from 2.8 per cent a month ago to 1.4 per cent last month.

Auckland is a bit patchy with a couple of highlights being North Shore slowing from 2.1 per cent a month to 1 per cent, while Auckland Central stayed at 1.2 per cent a month. Christchurch also slowed, the rate of increase going from 0.6 per cent to 0.5 per cent a month.

So property prices rises are slowing. Is that the last piece of the puzzle in confirming whether lending restrictions have done the trick? Well, it would be if demand and listings hadn’t rebounded.

Just in the last few weeks new listings and demand have suddenly surged upwards and what was looking like a very sad spring is now beginning to look a bit healthier.

A surge in new listings increased choice for buyers and will theoretically ease upward price pressure. An increase in demand as seen in people visiting their bank doesn’t mean that will translate to actual sales, despite the fact that it has always done so in the past. The game is different now.

The volatility in these various market measures suggests the dust is still settling. I still expect many people to hold out until well into next year to assess the state of the market.

That said, prediction in this market is a near impossibility. — Jonno Ingerson, QV