Strong economy a major bonus for Brand Bill
Can Finance Minister become National’s front- man?
ill English can lay claim to being the “$ 5 billion man” as he prepares to lead National’s campaign to be re- elected for a fourth term with him at the helm instead of John Key.
Make no mistake. The permanent campaign which Key mounted — at what must sometimes have been an exhausting personal cost, fronting events and meetings around the country as well as fulfilling his Beehive duties — leaves his successor with big shoes to fill.
But when Key orchestrated English’s promotion into the top job, he gifted him a strong political platform. English’s elevation came at the start of a week in which he was due to unveil Treasury figures showing the Government would post Budget surpluses into the future, culminating in an $ 8.5b forecast by 2021.
Achieving such a swift fiscal turnaround after the impact of the global financial crisis is a very creditable feat, and one for which the Key/ English duo can take a lot of kudos
Treasury expects a $ 5.4b Budget surplus by 2019, which would be just 18 months into the term of the next Government, and this would clearly give a Bill English- led Government policy options.
The question now is whether English will translate his reputation and record for strong economic stewardship into sufficiently broad appeal to get enough voters over the line next year.
That might require him to loosen the fiscal purse strings, against his better instincts.
After all, new Finance Minister Steven Joyce will be the politician unveiling those surpluses — not English.
And pertinently, Joyce is also National’s campaign manager — a situation which is ripe for conflict if he has to brake any push by the party for election- year giveaways.
Already, English is saying goodbye to Brand Key as he moves to set a new style for his prime ministership.
English’s claim to lead New Zealand rests on the economic stability he has ensured.
He is is blessed with a dry wit and is exceptionally well- regarded in business circles — particularly in New Zealand and Australia, where he is a known quantity and admired for his tight rein on the nation’s finances. But he is not a captivating front- person ( yet).
English fronted up to this reality yesterday. “The caucus knows we’ve got to reset a bit from the dominance John [ Key] had,” he said.
“It’s gonna need more people with a wider range of abilities and that’s what they’re working through right now.”
Key and English had a clear game plan for change.
But after 10 years of relative somnolence under Key’s political dominance — and that of his Kitchen Cabinet — National MPs now realise they can influence that game plan.
The backbenchers will have been feeling the wrath of their own constituents and party officials over issues such as housing affordability, which could yet prove to be the major election issue.
English is now reported as promising there will be continued emphasis on a strong economy, safe communities, jobs, better incomes and supporting families. His time as leader will ultimately be judged by the cohesive work of government and the ongoing results for New Zealand.
The National bankbench which has now found its oats should set a higher ambition.
Unlike other long- term treasurers, English did not have to challenge his boss for the prime ministership. Key vacated it himself.
But there is a viable argument that English — like many Treasurers before him — would also have wanted a period as Prime Minister after years in the engine room while the boss polished his political brand.
Both former UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown and former Australian Treasurer Paul Keating claimed to have had secret undertakings from Tony Blair and Bob Hawke respectively, that they would resign as Prime Minister in their favour.
Brown and Blair achieved that without a leadership spill. Keating took Hawke out in a coup. Brown went on to lose the subsequent election, but Keating won, and went on enjoy five years as Prime Minister before ultimately losing to John Howard.
Howard’s Treasurer, Peter Costello, also claimed to have forged a succession agreement with his boss, but he lacked the bottle to mount a coup when Howard refused to step down in his favour.
Keating’s success undoubtedly rested on his combative yet charming personality.
The permanent campaign which Key mounted . . . leaves his successor with big shoes to fill.
But most assessments of the Hawke/ Keating years say his fundamental contribution was as Treasurer. That is what English is up against too.
Brand Key may have reached the end of its political utility in New Zealand, but on the international stage John Key has been a tremendous asset to this country.
His personality and his track record in the international financial world have opened doors for New Zealand businesses like no other Prime Minister before him.
That is where the prime ministerial vacuum will be felt most acutely.
And at a time when the world is in flux — think Brexit, Donald Trump and TPP — his absence will be felt.
The truth is that the sometimes gauche image Key presented at home was not the predominant impression he presented offshore.
His personal gifts enabled him to establish commonality with many leaders. But it was his mastery of international trends that made them seek him out.
Filling those shoes will be a job for a political leader of the future.