Spin doctor

The countdown to Election 2017 has begun. With seven months to go, Isaac Davison takes the pulse of the parties to reveal who is in good health and who is a dead man walking . . .

The countdown to Election 2017 has begun. With seven months to go, Isaac Davison takes the pulse of the parties to reveal who is in good health and who is a dead man walking.

After nine years in power, the National Party is still showing all vital signs. It appears to have avoided the third- term blues and remains relatively popular and buoyed by a healthy economy.

But will that be enough come September 23 — and what of the prognosis of the other parties vying to form a Government?

National is up against a Labour Party which has stabilised — recent squabbles aside — under Andrew Little and heads into the election with a shred of optimism after a thumping victory in the Mt Roskill by- election.

The Green Party has held on to its support despite former co- leader Russel Norman's departure and has had a spring in its step since signing an agreement to work alongside Labour until election day.

New Zealand First is almost certain to go into the next election with a formidable leadership team of Winston Peters and ex- Labour MP Shane Jones, and could be the biggest beneficiaries — if any — of political upheaval in the US and Europe.

Mana Movement's Hone Harawira has returned to the political landscape after signing a deal to work with the Maori Party, which has set its sights on the Labour- dominated Maori seats.

The Internet Party is gone and the Conservatives are in terminal decline, but Gareth Morgan's The Opportunities Party is the latest millionaire- backed venture to try to shake up the mainstream parties.

Deals are being brokered in electorates between Maori and Mana, between Labour and the Greens, and between National, Act and United Future. And the parties are preparing a new onslaught of online campaigning as electoral reforms allow them to pour allocated funding into digital advertising rather than barely- watched, traditional party broadcasts.

The Opposition will contest an election uncluttered by 2014' s Dirty Politics, Kim Dotcom's Internet Party, and allegations of mass surveillance by whistleblower Edward Snowden and others.

But big questions remain. Have Labour and the Greens shown they are a Government in waiting? And is there a mood for change in the electorate?

National's campaign director Steven Joyce, running his fifth campaign, is talking down his party's position. The gap between National and the left- wing bloc is just 5 percentage points, he says. "Every election is hard. This one will be hard for different reasons than the last one. I don't think anybody's under any illusions — it will be a difficult challenge.

"People say you're well ahead in the polls. But actually it's not about that. It's MMP. It's about coalitions. So our job is we have to perform very well to even get in a position where you might be able to form a Government."

Joyce is distancing New Zealand from the recent political upsets of the past year. New Zealanders were "interested in their own security, their own opportunities, and which candidates will do the best job", he says. "Regardless of what happens overseas, that's what's important."

Labour's Little says in the past three years "the problems that people talk to us about have intensified". His party will highlight the strain of a growing population on housing, health and schools and will question whether the growing economy is benefiting everyone.

"There's a few chickens coming home to roost for the Government.

"The big issue that New Zealanders are increasingly concerned about is that a growing number of people seem to be missing out and others doing very well. At the core of that sits the housing issue."

Then there is the factor of a new Prime Minister. Bill English has had a steady start in the top job. But a few f lat public performances means the spectre of his heavy election defeat in 2002 has not been completely erased.

It is not yet clear how the public will respond to English's second campaign as leader, Little says. "It's wait and see."