ON THE WARD:

NATIONAL

Patient status: Recovering after major surgery. Biggest strength: Stable governance, growing economy. Biggest weakness: Housing woes. At a time of global uncertainty, National needs to show why sticking with the status quo is better than a change of Government in New Zealand.

It is up against a more cohesive, confident Labour- Greens bloc, and it will not be as easy to dismiss its opponents as dysfunctional. Labour will jump on the Government's struggle to control house prices — an issue every voter has an interest in.

National needs to show it has a credible plan for big, structural issues like unaffordable housing, inequality and pressures caused by population growth.

After nine years in charge, National also needs to look fresh. English has at least given the impression of rejuvenation by showing the door to underperforming ministers and elevating promising ones, in particular Amy Adams and Simon Bridges. He is also leading a fresh approach to tackling social ills, by using big data to fund only rigorously- tested social services.

The party must also overcome the loss of its biggest asset — former Prime Minister John Key.

The transition from Key to English has been relatively smooth, but English does not possess the easy confidence of his predecessor and has occasionally been flat or listless in public and media appearances. More energy and warmth could be needed on the campaign trail or leadership debates.

Nearly nine years after coming into power, National remains stubbornly popular. But it is unlikely to be able to govern alone. In the last two elections, it has been able to depend on United Future, Act, and the Maori Party to get a Parliamentary majority, and has not yet needed to call on New Zealand First.

Come September 23, that may no longer be the case.

LABOUR

Patient status: Stable, but with serious injuries ( self- inflicted). Biggest strength: Fresh caucus lineup. Biggest weakness: Caucus infighting. Labour must show it is fit for Government. It cannot afford to repeat the caucus scraps of the last month — something that plagued former leader David Cunliffe and strikes at the heart of the unity leader Andrew Little has worked so hard to create. It It must must show what

an alternative Labour- Greens Government will look like, by staying focused on its solutions rather than simply attacking National's failures. It has done so successfully on housing, and now needs to apply that to other key areas — health, education, jobs, incomes.

Labour needs to dispel fears about a potential coalition with the Greens, while also leaving the door open to New Zealand First. The party aims to reassure voters about its economic management by issuing a joint Labour- Greens statement on the issue next month.

And Little needs to convince New Zealanders he is a future Prime Minister, something he has struggled to do so far — he is polling behind Winston Peters and his predecessor Cunliffe in the preferred Prime Minister stakes. At least with Grant Robertson, Jacinda Ardern, Phil Twyford, and Kelvin Davis on the party's front bench, Labour cannot be accused of looking tired. It also has promising new blood like New Lynn candidate and academic Deborah Russell and new Mt Roskill MP Michael Wood. From a party perspective, Labour needs be a better- functioning unit than in 2017. It has successfully tested a new campaigning strategy in the Mt Roskill by- election and General Secretary Andrew Kirton says the party has replenished its war chest ( it raised and spent less money than the Greens last election, let alone National).

GREEN

Patient status: Stable. Biggest strength: Uncompromising stance on social and environmental issues.

Biggest weaknesses: The unknown factor — the party has never been in Government. To get into Government for the first time in their 30- year history, the Greens need to overcome two big obstacles. They need to shake the persistent perception that they have no economic credentials. And they need to turn "maybe" voters into certain ones. The party appears to have made gains on the first issue. Co- leader James Shaw has given the party a credible, businessfriendly friendly face, and his progress was vindicated by his recent ranking as second- best Opposition MP by NZ CEOs. Getting sympathetic voters to turn up at th the ballot box is a trickier problem. The Greens are trying to address it by starting its campaign work earlier than ever ever — — 18 months out — and recruiting a volunteer army of more than 10,000 people. The Greens are alsoa the most digitally savvy party, and will benefit from reforms that allow more spending on online campaigning. The party has a group of promising young women on its list, including mayoral candidate Chloe Swarbrick. It should ensure at least a few of them are ranked highlyh enough to get into Parliament. The party has had a steady three years in which it has neither lost nor gained significant ground. That could be marked as a success, given it lost co- leader Russel Norman, one of the architects of the party's rise to the political mainstream.

NEW ZEALAND EALAND FIRST

Patient status: Remarkably sprightly y given struggle with age.

Biggest strength: The likely leadershipip team: Winston Peters and Shanene Jones. Biggest weakness: No depth in its caucus.us. New Zealand First leader Winston Peters is in his 36th year in Parliament. He remains one of the most effective Opposition MPs, but the rest of his caucus are yet to distinguish themselves. As Peters enters his 70s, NZ First needs to become less dependent on its talisman.

The likely recruitment of former Labour MP Shane Jones will at least give the party a succession plan.

The party could also tap into the political upheaval in the United States and Europe.

However, the conditions that fuelled Brexit and Donald Trump's US election win — antiimmigration sentiment and working class discontent — are not as prevalent in New Zealand.

On current polling, New Zealand First is poised to decide whether National or Labour can form a Government in 2017.

As usual, Peters will reveal nothing about the party's preferences before election day.

He has also said little about his party's election plans except for a three- word press statement on the day that the election date was announced: "We are ready."

MAORI I PARTY

Patient status: Serious condition, but not thought to be life- threatening.

Biggest strength: Gains made for Maori by working with Government. The Maori Party's test in 2017 is to show voters it is better for Maori than the Labour Party, which holds six of the seven Maori seats. It must overcome the perennial problems of a small, Maori-focused party — lack of funding to cover the enormous Maori electorates, and the woefully

low turnout in those seats, which make it hard to build up its party vote and bring in more MPs.

Co- leaders Te Ururoa Flavell and Marama Fox are tackling the turnout problem by casting a wider net, to non- Maori, and promoting policies such as stopping some land sales to foreigners.

Unlike Labour, it can point to gains it has made by being "at the table" with National in Government — an estimated $ 1 billion for Maori programmes in nine years. It has also stalled changes which go against iwi values — the Kermadec Sanctuary and major resource management reforms.

The party has some momentum, having signed a deal to work with Hone Harawira's Mana Movement. It has also received an important endorsement from from the Kingitanga movement, which previously backed Labour.

ACT

Patient status: Critical, on life support. Biggest strength: Young, energetic leader. Biggest weakness: Dependent onon National National for survival. Act will need a presence in more electorates than Epsom if it is to grow its party beyond a single MP.

The party is too heavily dependent on National's support in the electorate for it political survival.

Leader David Seymour has reenergised the Act Party brand in his first term as an MP.

But he needs to spend more time on Act's core policies, rather than lobbying for assisted dying. He needs to clearly show how Act can influence national policy.

Act has, at least, avoided the controversies of the last term, when its leader John Banks quit Parliament after being found guilty of filing false statements on donations ( He was later acquitted).

Seymour has not shied away from attacking his support partner National on its failure to tackle the housing crisis and deliver on tax cuts.

UNITED FUTURE

Patient status: Terminal.

Biggest strength: Holding deciding vote on some key legislation.

Biggest weakness: One- man party that barely registers in the polls. Leader Peter Dunne will have to overcome his biggest test yet in Ohariu if he is to preserve his party and extend his 32- year political career. After just scraping in in 2014, he is now up against a higher- profile Labour candidate, Greg O'Connor. The Greens have withdrawn their candidate, giving O'Connor a clearer run in the seat.

Dunne needs to convince voters he is not on borrowed time, and still has a role to play in Parliament. In the past three years, he has continued to use his single vote to temper or stall National bills, most notably contentious resource management reforms.