Rise of the machines
Robo- anxiety over job losses
Will robots really take our jobs?
Despite endless headlines about so- called “robot anxiety” — and a recent study that suggested half of US jobs could be automated by technology that already exists — an expert says the threat is being exaggerated.
“It is true that some jobs will be automated, however just because a job can be automated does not mean it will be,” said Dr David Tuffley, a lecturer in applied ethics and sociotechnical studies at Australia’s Griffith University.
“For social, political and economic reasons, employers will decide to keep humans doing jobs, perhaps being assisted in the background by artificial intelligence [ AI].”
Tuffley expected the kinds of jobs to become automated were those dirty, dangerous, remote and lowstatus roles that employers had difficulty finding people to fill.
The logistics industry, particularly, was likely to be affected by progress in the “additive manufacturing” field, or 3D printing technologies.
“When I need a replacement remote for my TV, it would be cheaper, faster and more sustainable to print one out rather than have someone manufacture a minimum batch of 10,000 then have it transported many thousands of kilometres to me.
“Ironically, it is the robots in those distant factories that will be put out of work.”
Other jobs at immediate risk included truck and taxi drivers — autonomous vehicle technology was now mature enough to be used large- scale.
How humans would make a living in a robot- dominated workforce has been keenly debated — some economists have even suggested a general basic income for all.
Tuffley said social attitudes were constraining development, but these would change.
“How? By manufacturers installing more and more autonomous features like adaptive cruise control, lane- keeping and parking- assist — and people will use them, like them and come to rely on them. Then there will be a button you can press for full autonomy and people will wonder how they ever got along without it.”
Being able to relate to AI that we would eventually interact with daily was also a challenge, Tuffley said.
“As many robots will be commercially based, userfriendliness is of paramount importance for success. “I read that screenwriters and poets who used to work in the film and TV industry in LA have moved north to San Francisco where they now create really interesting and likeable personas for the AI devices currently being developed by the big tech com- panies.”
Another hurdle he foresaw was achieving “true general intelligence” in AI — being capable of adapting to unpredictable environmental conditions the way human intelligence can.
“We are still likely to be decades away from this — some experts predict around 50 years, some more, some less, the fact is nobody really knows.” At present, the world had good, specific AI that could efficiently do one job, such as constructing a car, but little else. That could change with work under way by Microsoft and Cambridge researchers, who are aiming to create AI so advanced it could write its own code. But Tuffley said any rise of the machines was nothing to fear. “Some experts who should know better create fear by painting Terminator- like scenarios where the robots decide to kill all the humans because we are seen as a plague species on the planet. “The fact is, we do need to be very careful, but we humans have been creating dangerous technology for a long time, and have managed to build in the necessary safeguards to preserve ourselves. “This will be no different. Challenging? Yes. Are we doomed? No.” Jamie Morton was hosted at the World Science Festival by Brisbane Marketing