Affordable housing — can we make it happen?
Ayear ago the Herald launched a series called Home Truths: Tackling NZ’s housing affordability crisis. We followed house hunters as they tried to get into Auckland’s soaring property market, talked to experts about what first- home buyers should do and an
It would be nice to report that a year after the Herald’s Home Truths series, things are finally looking up for first- home buyers. Unfortunately the facts paint a very different picture — as every frustrated house hunter knows.
The yawning gulf between house prices and the average person’s savings is not shrinking. It may be growing more slowly than last year but it is still out of control and housing i s more unaffordable than ever.
Auckland house prices have almost doubled since 2011; incomes are up by less than a quarter. No one can save fast enough to match that increase, unless they already own property or have outside help. Even last year, the median price rose $ 70,000 while a typical first- home buying couple’s income rose $ 2000, according to the interest. co. nz Home Loan Affordability series.
Of course, sensible first- timers don’t try to buy houses at the median price ($ 890,000 in the latest March figures), let alone the average ( up $ 114,000 last year to more than $ 1 million), so those figures are not the real target. But despite Social Housing Minister Amy Adams’ assurances this week — she told Parliament that record numbers of new apartments are being built and she could find 1800 listings in Auckland for properties worth less than $ 600,000 — most of the cheapest options are out.
Home Owners and Buyers Association president John Gray explicitly warns new buyers against apartments, based on his long experience of leaks, body corporate dramas and earthquake- strengthening costs.
Many so- called bargains lie on the outskirts, which doesn’t work for most because of the time and cost of commuting.
So the typical first- home buyer will probably have to spend about $ 670,000, the top price in the bottom quarter of the market in February, which has become the new benchmark for entry- level housing. At this point most single people can officially give up — unless you are a very high earner, house- buying in Auckland requires two incomes.
However, this house will also be out of reach for a typical Auckland couple aged 25- 29 with a combined take- home pay of $ 1602 a week, according to interest. co. nz. If they manage to save 20 per cent of this money each week for four years, they will have a deposit of $ 73,202. That’s still nowhere near the 20 per cent deposit required by banks for most of their home leading, but assuming they are accepted for a loan, they will need a $ 596,498 mortgage. Their weekly repayments will be about $ 725 or 45 per cent of their take- home pay. Anything over 40 per cent i s considered unaffordable, as it eats into a household’s ability to pay for essential items such as food, bills and transport costs.
We know that many people do manage to buy, despite the odds. Two of the couples from our Home Truths series last year eventually managed it. Gemma Mann and Mike Alsweiler bought in Ranui after lifting their budget from $ 600,000 to $ 720,000, which became possible only after they both received pay rises. Bharat Bhushan and Lovely Garg downsized their dream of a $ 650,000 standalone home to find a $ 550,000 threebedroom townhouse in Glen Eden, putting them on the first rung of the property ladder. And there i s no shortage of miracle stories about young people buying properties — but nearly always with financial help that most New Zealanders can only dream of or “hole- in- the- road” tales of self denial that verge on the ridiculous.
Sadly, the long- term numbers still don’t add up for most first- home buyers. Property ownership in Auckland has fallen from a high of 75 per cent in 1991 to 61 per cent in 2013, but the trend is even worse as many home owners are now over 60. The percentage of 45- to 49- year- olds who don’t own a house has doubled to 35 per cent and only half of Aucklanders in their late 30s were home owners in 2013, before the latest price surge. At this rate fewer than half of Auckland households are expected to own their home within the next 20 years. That risks an ugly divide between the “landed gentry” — as economist Shamubeel Eaqub put it — and havenots, who feel permanently shut out.
The yawning gulf between house prices and the average person’s savings is not shrinking
A year ago today the Herald began a series called Home Truths: Tackling NZ’s affordable housing crisis. We talked to house hunters struggling to buy their first home in Auckland’s runaway property market and asked experts what they could do to improve their chances. We also analysed the causes of the problem, from scarce land supply to speculators flipping houses for capital gain. The series aimed to start a more focused national debate about how all New Zealanders could work together to solve one of our most urgent social and economic problems.
Twelve months on and with Auckland’s median house price up this week by a further $ 70,000 to $ 890,000, it’s fair to say the results have been mixed. The series had an immediate impact on both the public and politicians. Stories poured in from frustrated house hunters — particularly those who had previously felt marginalised by Government statements that this was a good problem to have, as everyone ( read “older homeowning voters”) was getting richer.
Politicians and business and community leaders climbed in with a range of possible solutions, many of which we explored in our coverage. The Government has since talked up several initiatives, including making better use of Housing New Zealand land, but the most radical moves have come from elsewhere.
Banks effectively stopped lending to foreigners, which has apparently taken the steam out of sales to overseas- based Chinese buyers. Labour is talking tough about lowering immigration numbers to relieve pressure on all the city’s infrastructure, a genuine dilemma that needs to be handled carefully. The Reserve Bank has also asked for powers to impose a UK- style debt- to- income ratio on buyers, a move which may well slow price growth but would also hurt first- home buyers hardest.
There are many other possible solutions and we canvassed several of them at the end of last year’s series. For the council’s compact city strategy to work properly, we first need to free up more land for well- planned developments on the city’s outskirts — otherwise rising land prices will continue to fuel more speculative buying in an upward spiral. We need to get roads, water and sewerage into new developments much faster, through private sector involvement or the use of local taxes if necessary.
Smaller, mass- produced homes are essential to reducing building costs and providing the accommodation that most buyers actually want. It could take more flexible planning rules and a large- scale intervention like Labour’s Kiwibuild policy for 100,000 new homes to change industry norms here.
And although it seems unlikely in today’s political climate, we should reconsider a broad- based capital gains tax or at least an end to negative gearing, which allows property investors to offset rental losses against their other taxable income. Another good step would be tenancy law reform to improve living conditions for our growing population of long- term renters who cannot afford to buy.
Like the rest of us, politicians make their decisions on the facts that matter to them. The biggest potential for improved housing affordability in the next 12 months lies with the growing number of 18- to 40- year- olds locked out of the property market. But that’s also why change so far has been glacial — because MPs know that when this year’s election comes around, most of this group won’t bother to vote.
We should reconsider a broad- based capital gains tax or at least an end to negative gearing.