This series won’t be won by the better arm wrestlers
hat stands out straight away when I look at the British and Irish Lions squad is the strength of their pack, but Warren Gatland’s team have to be careful they don’t focus too much on trying to smash the All Blacks up front.
They need an attacking ambition if they are to win the series — an intent like that shown by Ireland in Chicago last year when the men in green scored five tries in a stunning performance.
There is no doubt they have the goalkicking talent to keep their score ticking over, but they won’t win it solely with the boots of Owen Farrell, Leigh Halfpenny and Johnny Sexton. They have to get the balance right — starting with a pack who can play a bit. They have the makings.
I don’t think they will get stuck like they did in 2005 when they tried to arm wrestle the All Blacks. They have to want to get around the field and not become obsessed with the set piece. With hookers Rory Best and Jamie George you can see they have been prepared to pick players who will play some rugby and that’s exciting.
A key issue is who they pick at fullback for the tests. The All Blacks kick the ball a lot to you and if the Lions are going to be successful they need a fullback who can make good decisions and not simply kick it straight back.
Stuart Hogg is a fantastic attacking player — during the last two Six Nations he was one of the leading players in terms of metres run and tackle breaks, so it will be interesting to see if Gatland picks him or Jared Payne over the slightly more predictable Halfpenny.
I have spoken to former Scotland representative Kenny Logan about the squad, and while there are only two Scots in it, he and I agree that not too many others could consider themselves unlucky to miss out. I guess the Gray brothers could feel a little disappointed, but the second row is very strong with the likes of Iain Henderson, Maro Itoje, Alun Wyn Jones, George Kruis and Courtney Lawes there.
Another talking point is the selection of Sam Warburton as captain. I’m not sure he can command a test start, but under Gatland he has been there and done it before. He will also galvanise the squad. It’s worth remembering that during the last tour of Australia four years ago it was Jones holding up the trophy at the end, with Warburton standing next to him, injured, in his blazer and tie. There is likely to be a big casualty rate during this tour and things can change pretty quickly.
It has to be said, though, that Gatland has courage to make the big decisions — he showed that last time out in Australia when he dropped Brian O’Driscoll. It proved to be the right decision.
This is a squad with a huge amount of depth, one of the strongest ever picked. Correspondingly, the expectation levels will be very high.
If any Lions team could win here this is the one. We as New Zealanders know that and I think the Lions supporters know that too.
The big challenge now is for Gatland to get everything else right: on the field and off the field with the management of the tour and players. If he does it will be a hell of an exciting tour.
“You can overplay that importance [ of Chicago],” Farrell said. “I think it is about the belief as a squad, belief in your team- mate at the side of you and belief in yourself when you go out there. I think that galvanises over the first three or four weeks, and that will be the focus.
“If you are picked in a squad like this, and you are part of the 41, I don’t think any of them will have fear.
“It doesn’t make you have any superpower that you have been involved in a side that has beaten the All Blacks, because we all know, on any given day, any game is different and takes its own flow.”
If any man does have knowledge of the All Blacks’ kryptonite then it is Farrell, who is the only active international coach to have recorded two victories over the world champions following on from England’s 38- 21 victory in 2012. Those victories ended the All Blacks’ unbeaten runs of 18 and 20 games respectively.
On each occasion, New Zealand threatened to overturn an early deficit. At Twickenham, they rallied from 15- 0 to make it 15- 14. With 16 minutes to go in Chicago, they closed to 33- 29.
Dealing with that resurgence, when so many teams melt away, will be crucial for the Lions’ hopes of securing a first series victory since 1971.
“The common denominator I’ve seen in the couple of games we’ve been successful against the All Blacks in is having players who can deal with the flow of the game as it is unfolding in front of your face,” Farrell said. “The game will take its own shape, and they [ the All Blacks] certainly will have their purple patch in all their games. It’s how we can stay on track or get back on track and get back at them.”
It i s easy to be overawed by the very prospect of facing New Zealand. Those two defeats rank among four since they won the 2011 World Cup.
The All Blacks have lost only twice since the 2011 Rugby World Cup and their record on home soil i s even more formidable. Their last defeat in New Zealand came eight years ago, a run stretching back 45 games. At Eden Park, where two of the three tests will be staged, New Zealand have not lost since 1994.
Defeating them, Farrell insisted, did not mean copying them.
“You can get obsessed with what the All Blacks are about, and everyone has been for a long period of time. You have got to play your game and understand what you are good at and how you are going to attack them with, or without, the ball.”
Lions assistant Andy Farrell