Special vote likely to favour left

Labour- Greens expected to gain at National’s expense: electoral expert

The most likely result of the special votes tally today will be for Labour and the Greens to gain at National’s expense — a result that will not change the ability of either side to form a government with NZ First but will help strengthen Labour’s arm.

Gaining a seat or two on the left will help Labour’s ability to form a stable government by giving it a more comfortable margin than one seat for a majority.

The left wing parties traditionally do better in the special votes than on election night and it would take only a small shift in the 384,000 special votes for the Greens and then Labour to gain and for National to drop.

Electoral law expert Graeme Edgeler said it was highly unlikely either Labour, Greens or NZ First would drop a seat unless they did significantly worse in the special votes than on election night, which would buck the trends of past elections.

The Greens will pick one up if they get about 7 per cent of the special votes compared to their 6 per cent on election night. Labour will pick up one if it gets about 40 per cent of the special votes — its election night result was 35.8 per cent.

The Greens and NZ First would have to be on about 2 per cent and Labour below 34 per cent to drop a seat.

There i s a chance NZ First too could pick up a seat — but it would need to do slightly better than its election night result of 7.5 per cent and traditionally does not fare as well in the special votes.

For National to hold its 58 seats there is very little room for it to slip in the specials compared to its election night result of 46 per cent.

If National lost two seats it would mean a National- NZ First grouping would muster 65 seats to the 63 of a Labour- Green- NZ First grouping.

Edgeler said constitutionally picking up a seat would make no difference in Labour’s ability to form a gov-

The final election result is to be confirmed at 2pm today.

The result will be announced after the counting of almost 390,000 special votes — including many from overseas.

On election night, National won 58 seats, Labour 45, New Zealand First 9, the Green Party 7 and 1 seat was won by ACT.

National received 46 per cent of the vote, with Labour receiving 35.8 per cent of the vote.

NZ First leader Winston Peters started preliminary coalition talks with both National and Labour on Thursday.

Peters says he is confident he can conclude negotiations by October 12. ernment but it would in practical terms. “With 61 seats if one person crosses the floor you can’t pass the Budget.

“That’s a lot different from needing two or three people to cross the floor to do that. So yes, having a buffer of more than one is probably important if you’re relying on three parties.”

NZ First leader Winston Peters has said National does not have the moral authority to form a government just because it got the highest share of the vote, but it is likely he is wary of the one- seat majority on the Labour side of the equation.

Labour leader Jacinda Ardern has said it would be more of a comfort if they could stretch out to a t wo or three seat majority.

Green leader James Shaw said he was confident of getting another seat and candidate Golriz Ghahraman was already attending caucus meetings because of the likelihood.

The votes include overseas voters and people who voted outside their electorates but there are more than usual because for the first time people could enrol and vote at the same time in advance voting booths.