Vaudesir looks bank-builder for a good start
An all-up on Prom Queen (No 1, R8) in the 1000 Guineas and Pentathlon (No 2, R10) in the NZ Cup will get you close to a $5 divvi. You could do worse than a punt on that combination.
It’s a big day’s betting today, so let’s start off with a bankbuilder in Vaudesir in Race 2 at Tauranga. She couldn’t keep a smart sort in Grandf Soleil at bay at Ellerslie last start, but beat the others just as easily. She’s only even money, but that will double the bank. Second favourite Spree finished third behind her at Ellerslie and there is little reason to suspect that will turn around here.
This column has a big opinion of
Kapoor (No 10, R3). She is by boom staying sire Reliable Man and we would like to see this at 1600m, but she is not stepping back in distance and handled the 1400m at Ellerslie well. Her close second to Dijon Bleu there was a great trial for this. She will have a big rating by season’s end.
Midnight Runner (No 4) won by a margin at Counties last start and being by Jimmy Choux almost certainly appreciated the wet footing. He comes back to a firm track here, but looked okay on a decent surface winning a trial at Ruakaka.
Selfie (No 1, R4) has a soft barrier to offset his 59kg topweight and Jason Waddell should be able to take advantage. He is more than capable in this grade.
Mr Knowitall (No 3) is the eachway value. Okay, he’s well into the veteran stage, but has beaten better fields than this and the two runs this preparation should have him at a level of fitness to upset.
Race 5 is tough. Arraignment
(No 4) was not beaten far when third on this track last start and appeals in an even field as each-way value.
Victor Vegas (No 11) looks the obvious one, but he will be short in the market with talented Australian jockey Jake Bayliss to do the steering. Maybe the quinella.
Kawi (No 1, R6) is all the rage in the big race and with good reason. He goes his best races when he has freshness in his legs and will love the firm conditions.
But, at the odds $2 to $8, Stolen
Dance (No 6) is worth a look. There was little between her and Kawi when both were at their peak early last year. Stolen Dance beat Kawi home in the group one Herbie Dyke at Te Rapa, but Valley Girl beat them both.
Miss Wilson (No 7) is in form and hugely talented, but at level weights she might have have problems with Stolen Dance if the latter is at her best. Kawi deserves to be favourite. Fascinating race.
It’s difficult to know what to make of the form of Splurge (No 2, R7). A year back he looked up to any of our sprinters, but went only okay in Brisbane, even allowing that Australia has overall better shortdistance horses. You can make a case that his last-start third on this track, while not up to his best, was at least an improvement. If he flops here, jump off the train.
Stablemate Royal Success
(No 6) has to step up a grade for this, but is in excellent form and Natuzzi
(No 1) can win despite his 60kg.
Mental Telepathy’s (No 2, R8) Taranaki victory last start was not because of the wet conditions, but more likely in spite of them. It was an extremely dominant win for an inexperienced type and he looks to be going places quickly. Bayliss should give him the perfect trip.
Topweight The Bandito (No 1) has won only one race in 26 starts, but you had to like the sway he fought hard for his second at Trentham last start, especially as the horse getting past him was Embellish, the subsequent 2000 Guineas winner. Only one drawback — this will be his first start righthanded, but he might be worth the risk to run the quinella with the favourite.
Difficult to get rich off the good things at Riccarton today, but an allup on Prom Queen (No 1, R8) in the 1000 Guineas and Pentathlon
(No 2, R10) to take the NZ Cup will get you close to a $5 divvi, depending on overnight fluctuations. You could do worse than a punt on that combination.