Slower ramp up in making Model 3s is leading analysts to speculate about another capital raising
Tesla pushed back a key production target for its pivotal Model 3 sedan again, raising questions about whether the electric-car maker may need to raise more cash.
The Elon Musk-led company now expects to assemble 5000 Model 3s a week by the end of June, delaying plans to reach that milestone by another three months. Tesla didn’t come close to achieving an initial goal to manufacture that many of the sedans a week by the end of 2017.
Tesla’s slower ramp up in manufacturing Model 3s led analysts to speculate another capital raise could be coming. The carmaker has been blowing through more than US$1 billion ($1.4b) a quarter as it’s had trouble scaling up output despite spending heavily on robots, assembly lines and tooling for the sedan that is Musk’s cheapest yet, starting at US$35,000 ($49,000).
“Bears will point to this as another missed promise,” Joe Spak, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said in a note to clients. While a capital raise may not be required, Tesla lacks “a ton of wiggle room” and should seek more cash to mitigate risks, he wrote.
Tesla shares fell as much as 3.6 per cent to US$305.68, the biggest intraday drop in five weeks. The stock climbed 46 per cent in 2017 and the company ended the year with a US$52.3b market capitalisation, placing it ahead of Ford and behind General Motors.
“We believe a fundraise will be necessary for Tesla in 2018,” Brian Johnson, an analyst at Barclays, wrote in a report to clients yesterday. He projects the company will burn through US$4.2b this year and assumes the company will raise US$2.5b through an equity offering, likely during the third quarter.
Tesla reported deliveries of 1550 Model 3s in the final three months of the year, trailing analysts’ average estimate for about 2900 units in a Bloomberg News survey.
Including Model S sedans and Model X crossovers, Tesla delivered a total of 29,870 vehicles during the fourth quarter. The company delivered 101,312 Model S and Model X vehicles for the year, exceeding its The Model 3 sedan is Elon Musk’s cheapest yet, starting at US$35,000.
forecast for 100,000 units. Sales of those more expensive models jumped 33 per cent from 2016.
In the months leading up to efforts to get the Model 3 up to speed, Tesla raised at least US$1.2b through an offering of stock and convertible bonds in March and another US$1.8b by tapping the debt market in August.
Robert W. Baird & Co analyst Ben Kallo said he sees Tesla having enough cash and additional liquidity sources to cover it through the revised 5000-a-week schedule, meaning no capital raise will be required in the first half of this year.
“We think there is even room to hold off returning to the capital markets if the new schedule goes slightly slower than expected,” he
said in an email.
“That said, this continues to be a major focus by the market.”
In a statement on Thursday, Tesla thanked customers “who continue to stick by us while patiently waiting for their cars”. The company announced the acquisition of Perbix, a closely held maker of automated machines used for manufacturing, back in November, a week after Musk cited challenges with automating Model 3 production.
“Tesla has really lofty goals for automation,” Tasha Keeney, an analyst at ARK Investment Management, which holds Tesla shares, said in a phone interview.
“Once you have it right you can ramp up really quickly, but getting to that phase is the difficult part.”
Tesla ended September with about US$3.5b cash in hand and projected another US$1b in capital expenditures during the last three months of the year.
By postponing production plans, the company may also defer spending, said Jeff Osborne, an analyst at Cowen & Co, who has the equivalent of a sell rating on the shares. The company may need to raise another US$1b to US$1.5b over the next six months, Osborne said yesterday.
Tesla reported 860 Model 3 sedans were in transit to customers at the end of December. The company said it made significant progress on speeding up manufacturing of the sedan late last month, producing 793 units in the last seven working days. Chief financial officer Deepak Ahuja said during an earnings call in November that cash flow will improve significantly once Tesla ramps up Model 3 output because the company will collect money from customers before paying its suppliers. Cowen’s Osborne wrote in a report to clients on Thursday that the carmaker may need to raise more capital again in the next three to six months.
“Tesla is always a quarter away, and now you have to wait six months to get your report card on your investment thesis,” Osborne said by phone on Thursday.
“They’ve kicked the can down the road.”