Lizzie L’Amour still looks bet of the day at Ellerslie
punting
Okay, it’s short odds, but Lizzie L’Amour in the $200,000 Bonecrusher Stakes still looks the best bet at Ellerslie today.
She slid from $2 to $1.90 yesterday, but that’s about accurate around her chances.
Barrier draws are critical at 2000m at Ellerslie and the No1 gate for an on-pace runner could not be more ideal. Lizzie L’Amour will take advantage of the barrier and should enjoy the perfect spot in running. Stablemate St Emilion is in great form. He will lead, is well suited by the weight-for-age even level scale and will fight strongly.
Morweka (No3, R1) was unlucky not to win at Hastings last start when blocked then finished fourth, but from the outside gate of 11 of the 11 runners, the same might apply again. A safer way to start the day is probably
Swissilicious (No4) who is in good form and has drawn in much closer. This is an even field with Precision Miss (No10) and Almarie (No8) both having drawn awkwardly enough, but can go close with the right amount of luck. Not an easy race for the opener.
If you watched the Avondale barrier trial win by Fullinbloom (No4, R2) you will rush to be on today, but the $2.60 the TAB was offering yesterday is about as short as you’d want to take.
She is a leader and from No3 at the barriers she should lead easily enough, but 58kg is a decent weight for a mare. She can win, but if you don’t like short odds Silver Cloud (No5) each way may suit you better. She has been racing well in strong fields. Bevan Street (No2) is the improver.
King’s Cross (No4, R3) has been freshened since finishing only fifth when expected to go close at Trentham last time out. He is very smart and as a previous Ellerslie winner rates highly from a reasonable gate. He will probably get back, but can power home. Corporate Raider
(No6) has gone to a different level in recent starts. He can similarly kick home strongly, so this will be an interesting race. In a field of many chances, Fortius (No9) and Thatsforsure (No15) are chances. The first time Thatsforsure leaves the gates with the others she is going to take some stopping.
Race 4 is a good betting affair. Not much to choose here between Richie McHorse (No9) and Scrutinize
(No1), even though the winning chances don’t end anywhere near there. Richie McHorse has been crying out for a middle distance and this race suits from a nice barrier. He has had enough racing this prep to fit him for this. The paper form of Scrutinize would look a lot better had luck been on his side. This is not an easy task under 60kg, but he will give it a decent shot.
Lovelight (No6) has found her real form and has a touch of class, but she faces a big job from the outside gate. The tactics adopted from the barriers will be interesting. Jake The Muss (No4) and Queensland jockey Damian Browne are upsetters.
Plenty of formlines to choose from in Race 5. Rosa Carolina (No8) did well in Australia in good fields before returning to New Zealand and she won well at Te Rapa at her first start here. This is a little tougher, but she is smart. Princess Kereru (No11) was a good thing beaten last Saturday, finishing powerfully into third after missing the start. She has drawn wide here which will make it tough because she probably has few options other than going back again. Don’t leave her out of multiple bets though. Howbowdat (No5) has been in outstanding form since coming back from Hong Kong. He is very strong and will last well in what will be a tough race.
The juvenile, Race 6 the $200,000 Sistema Stakes, will alone be worth the price of admission. Melt (No6), Avantage (No5) and Sword Of Osman (No1) will give a great sight. Melt will take plenty of beating, but Sword Of Osman will lead and that might give him a winning advantage. He is a beast of a colt, has ample speed and does not lack fight late in his races. We are leaning to Sword Of Osman from the rails barrier. Spanish Whisper (No7) looks the best outside those already mentioned.
Livin’ On a Prayer (No6, R7) has one issue in this — a wide gate. It will be up to Matt Cameron to find a decent passage from outside and if he can it will take a very good performance to topple him. Caprikoza (No9) will appreciate dropping back in class from tackling the likes of Thee Auld Floozie and with just 54kg makes a lot of appeal. Ruud Not To (No3) did better last time and Monrecour (No10) can be in it from the rails barrier.
We are very keen on Magic Chai
(No6, R9) in the Barfoot & Thompson Auckland Cup. Unlike most in this field he is already proven at 3200m and looked good finishing fourth in the lead-up handicap last Saturday. High class Australian jockey Damian Browne takes over the ride and he will give Magic Chai every chance. The obvious danger is last week’s winner Ladies First (No16), who maintains her form despite coming a long way in a very short time. Charles Road (No5) and Excalibur (No12) are musts for multiple bettors.
The get out stakes, the last, is a very open field. Visitor Koko Belle
(No8, R10) has been running strong races in good fields and can get rewards here. Neeson (No1), Gundown (No4) and Light Shadow
(No3) are possibilities.