Small change but No Change way to start day
punting
The key to today at Te Rapa, particularly in the jumps races, is identifying horses able to handle a track that is significantly firmer than many horses are used to. The jumps season is more condensed these days and horses, even those not suited, have to kick off somewhere.
You might have to take the short odds, but No Change looks a good way to start the day. He has had just four jumping starts — a win and two placings — last season and should be raring to go in his second year. He has shown he can perform on a track just into the dead range and should be suited today. Trainer Paul Nelson partially farm-trains his team and No Change should be fairly close to full fitness.
Nelson could be at it again in race two with No 1 Perry Mason. He is still a maiden after 10 hurdle races, but has been brought along steadily and this should be his year. Like his stablemate he has shown form on dead tracks.
White Diamond is the interesting runner. She is zip from four over the jumps, but has more flat galloping ability than most in this race. She showed up at the recent jumping trials and should be kept safe.
Mihaul (No 11, R3) is unbeaten in four runs and has widened some eyes with the method of his last two. He jumps another grade for this and there are a couple of smart ones, so the five from five is not a given, partricularly if the odds shorten right in. Look to Fire Jet (No 7) to do better this time after two preparatory runs. The 3kg Tayla Wenn takeoff will be very important, as will the inside barrier. Visitor Mighty Solomon (No 1) is talented and will also benefit from a 3kg allowance. He will be fitter for his first-up run and don't be surprised if he features in the finish. Roc de Bank (No 9), Selfie (No 5) and Indecision (No 6) help make it a decent race for multiple bets.
The Ken and Roger Memorial Steeples is a bit of mystery given most of these are prepping for the upcoming Waikato Steeples. Trainer Stephen Ralph is unsure exactly how fit topweight Thenamesbond (No 1, R4) but told us: “I expect him to run 1 or 2 and whatever he does he will be the horse to beat in the Waikato Steeples.” Ngatira Gold (No 2) might be fractionally better with some rain, but is good enough to figure regardless and Justa Charlie (No 6) has had the benefit of two races this prep.
Race 5 is a decent field of stayers — proven and improving — for this time of year. Zanyetta (No 8) is going to appreciate the step up to 2100m after finishing on well at 1600m at Avondale last time. She should be on the improve and rates highly. So does Fawn (No 9), stepping up in class, but has shown real potential, driving home hard to win in slightly eaiser class on this track last time. Highlad (No 2) is worth consideration.
Nice field in the juvenile race, Race 6. Santa Catalina (No 9) looks a filly of real class. She was narrowly beaten on debut at Matamata then won well on the same track. She should still be improving and is a worthy favourite. Ole Ole (No 1) was yesterday at the remarkable odds of $9.20, given he has finished second in both runs. Perhaps some are swayed by his drop back from 1600m to 1100m, but he has been on the speed in both his races and the dropback should not be an issue. He certainly fights hard and looks a horse for the future.
Byzantine (No 2) should be right in the fight.
The last three races are open affairs.
You had to admire the resuming winning run of Simply Optimistic (No 4, R7) at Pukekohe last time. He is beautifully bred by Encota De Lago from a Zabeel mare and should continue his form. The little-raced Forever Clever (No 7) is coming off a short break and should benefit from that. Short Fuse (No 12) and Socially Excited make some appeal in a wide open race.
Paisley Park (No 3, R8) made a huge impression in winning on debut on his home track at Matamata and looks a horse with a massive upside. He has drawn a fraction wide, but this should matter less in the back end of the programme. Startling Reminder (No 6) is in with a chance for money as are Neeson (No 2) and
Poker Face (No 2).
The Pukekohe track may have been a touch too heavy when Big Mike (No 4, R9) was topped off by a nose last start, but it could be fractionally too much the other way in the last. He generally holds form so is worth an each-way chance. Buy MeA Rock (No 13) is a value runner and Vinevale should be in all multiples.