It’s definitely horses for the course at Te Rapa
punting
Te Rapa has become a slightly less reliable race surface than going back
12 or 18 months.
Sand kickback has hampered horses in recent meetings, particularly younger inexperienced types, although not exclusively.
Horses racing on the speed are generally of lesser risk, which is tragic because Te Rapa — notorious in winter going back a few decades — became just about the best wet weather surface outside Ruakaka.
You can’t restrict today’s betting to horses with recent good Te Rapa form, but they are also the ones who deserve a little bit more attention.
As we’ve mentioned previously, horses right on the speed and particularly the leaders, have an exaggerated success record in the first races at Te Rapa.
Nirvana In Fire will probably lead here and be difficult to pull back. He has the speed in the race and the drop back to 1100m should be ideal. Hapi Ella is backing up in seven days, but she has looked pretty smart and she has had the wide open beach spaces at Ruakaka all week to freshen from her second on her home track seven days back.
The barrier draw for Luck of Master (No 2, R2) is ugly. Contrary to his name, he has had anything but good luck in his two starts and his minor placings have been excellent. If he gets any good fortune from wide out this time he can go close. Don’t be surprised if Cologne (No 10) runs an improved race for Stephen McKee and Sam Spratt. Overall he has better form than many of these. Drake Bay (No 6) can run a race.
Even with a 4kg claim, Close Up (No 1, R3) will still carry 58.5kg, conceding 4kg and more to the others. He’s tough and smart though and his fine fresh-up record puts him right in this. Whichever way to attack the race it comes down to weight. Salamanca (No 2) is fit after going around at Trentham last week and Galaxy Miss (No 3) is the value after a slight freshen.
Saturday maidens are not easy for debut runners to win, but Shine (No 11, R4) has been excellent at the barrier trials and from an ideal inside gate Vinnie Colgan can put him right in the race. You can make a case for a few of the others and Go For Dough (No 1) is one of them. An inside gate here is also an advantage.
The distance races at R86 and open company at this time of the year have a bit of a yawn factor and are often difficult to nail. Jochen Rindt (No 1, R5) has the form on the board and good stats on the track so will likely start favourite. But he has 3kg and more to concede the others, so it won’t be easy late in the race. If you’ve been following something in this race, keep following it.
Race 6 is not easy, but
Worthiswaitngold (No 1) deserves attention. He has 60kg to lump, which is a decent impost, but he’s tough and has drawn the No 1 gate. Good to see Jason Waddell back in the raceday saddle after a break. The topweight will get his chance. There are lots of chances and Verry Flash (No 3) is one of them.
No Loitering (No 2, R7) could have won either of his last two starts. He gets his turn here with 3kg off his
59.5kg and his luck has to change soon. Don’t dismiss Athletica (No 3) in a fresh state.