Betting on Lazarus? Don’t risk it
Before you consider taking the $1.75 price around Lazarus winning his US debut today, consider this one simple word of advice: don’t.
The Kiwi pacing hero kicks off the new phase of his career in the US$325,000 Dan Patch at Hoosier Park in Indiana scheduled for 1.30pm NZ time.
The hype is understandably enormous, one of our greatest pacers of all time, bought for a record price and coming off the back of stunning qualifying effort at the Meadowlands where he paced 1:48.6 for a mile.
Even rival trainers admit they are excited to see what Lazarus brings to a North American freefor-all crop lacking a high-wattage superstar.
“I have actually seen him race in New Zealand and we all know he is pretty special,” says Casie Coleman, who trains second favourite McWicked.
Married to New Zealander Mark
Herlihy, the son of champion driver Tony Herlihy, Coleman is better placed than most to assess the merits of a great New Zealand horse versus her own star.
“But I don’t think anybody knows what to expect. Our racing here is very different from your racing and it could take him a while to get used to.
“So we will be as interested as everybody else, but obviously we are hoping to beat him.”
Which pretty much sums up today’s starting point for which Lazarus’ connections paid a US$25,000 late entry fee to make him eligible.
One factor not in doubt is motivation. After paying nearly $4 million for Lazarus his new owners want to make an instant impact to excite North American breeders as they hope to make the six-year-old a dual hemisphere stallion.
His fitness will be close to what is needed for what should be a 1:48.5-1:49.5 mile today. But Lazarus is entering a new arena today and while his training will have been aimed at mile racing, that has never been the best stage to showcase his talents.
His barrier nine today may not pan out the same as the outside of the mobile gate would in this part of the world, with horse rarely trapped three wide in North America but Lazarus may still have to use the most energy in the first half of the race.
That could make him vulnerable to the hard-finishing McWicked down the long Hoosier Park straight.
Lazarus is a great horse with a Hall of Fame trainer and a champion driver. He might simply sit parked and win.
Thousands of harness racing fans Australasian wide are expecting just that and I hope they are right.
But hope has nothing to do with punting to make money.
Facing all these new challenges, Lazarus would be a decent bet at $2.50. At his $1.75 quote last night only those betting with their heart rather than their brain could rate him any value.
So watch, enjoy, hopefully cheer. But don’t bet unless that price gets a lot more realistic.