Richards plays it cool on Probabeel
Jamie Richards is going into one of the most important campaigns of his career in “neutral” mode.
Which means nothing would surprise him when Karaka Million winner Probabeel makes her Australian debut in Sydney this afternoon.
The exceptional filly is second favourite for the Magic Night Stakes, in which a huge performance could even tilt the scales toward a crack at next Saturday’s Golden Slipper.
Having a serious player in the Golden Slipper wouldn’t just be a huge deal for a young trainer like Richards but for the entire New Zealand industry.
New Zealand-trained Slipper contenders are rare, our genuine winning chances total about two in the history of the dash for cash and even one of those, McGinty, was scratched.
Not to mention the fact Probabeel is owned by Brendan and Jo Lindsay who now own Cambridge Stud and is by Waikato Stud’s champion sire Savabeel so many of the industry’s biggest names will be hoping Probabeel brings her Ellerslie form to Rosehill today. But Richards, as has become the norm for a young man steering a very big racing machine, isn’t getting carried away.
“We are happy with her and the reports from Dad (Paul) who travelled with her this week are good,” says Richards.
“But there are suggestions there could be a storm and the track could end up heavy.
“She trialled okay on those conditions back in the spring and I suppose they might help with her wide barrier but we really don’t know what to expect.
“I am going into the race neutral on her chances.
“It is a case that she almost has to run because she needs a race before the Sires’ Produce in a few weeks but if she came out and won then the decision on the Slipper would be up to Brendan and Jo.”
That will hardly instill great confidence in punters, especially with Probabeel up against a trio of James Cummings juveniles as that young trainer continues to prove Godolphin made the right choice when they chose him as their main man in Australia. But with Opie Bosson in rare form and the likely slow or heavy track maybe sapping some of the sprint out of the speed-bred Aussie babies, a big run from Probabeel wouldn’t shock.
But the $4.50 price last night wasn’t that appealing.
Regardless of what happens at Rosehill, Richards won’t have much time to dwell on it as less than 30 minutes later he has two winning chances in the Oaks at Trentham and he is anything but neutral about the hopes of Savy Yong Blonk and Shezathinka.
“I think it is a very even Oaks around that top six to eight chances but I wouldn’t swap ours for any of the others.
“They are bred to stay and in great condition. If I had to favour one more it would be Savy Yong Blonk as she is drawn to get the better run whereas Shezathinka might have to do it the hard way.”
Richards rates speedster juvenile Equinox (race two), scratched from the Sistema Stakes at Ellerslie last Saturday because of the wet track, as his best hope of the weekend.