All Blacks will win, statistics predict

Research forecasts World Cup to return after defeating Springboks

Spoiler alert — the All Blacks are set for an historic third successive Rugby World Cup triumph.

And according to a data project by Melbourne-based Kiwi stats specialist Stefan Yelas, they will most likely beat the Springboks in the final.

The prediction model — which successfully predicted the All Blacks’ past two tournament triumphs — is backing the Kieran Read-captained side to repeat the pain they inflicted on the Boks in the sides’ opening match of the tournament in Japan last Saturday in the November 2 final.

The All Blacks have been given a 61 per cent likelihood of winning, an achievement which would see them become the first side to win the Webb Ellis Cup three times in a row.

The Springboks have been given just a 21 per cent chance of victory.

“I was surprised how far out New Zealand was [against other contenders] despite recent performances [before the World Cup],” Yelas, director of Octane Research, told the Weekend Herald.

“New Zealanders should be pretty confident we are going to do well at the World Cup.

“The chance of them making a semifinal is almost 100 per cent at this stage. That’s pretty good if you are a fan. And once they have made the final, which they have a 79 per cent chance of doing, well that’s pretty good.”

Yelas’ Rugby World Cup 2019 — Prediction Model is a statistical model based on team ratings derived from past performances.

The model uses data from all games between the 20 World Cup teams since 2011. Those ratings are then updated after each day’s action in Japan.

In an exercise before the start of the World Cup, the simulator correctly predicted the outcomes of 75 per cent of games played by the competing teams in Japan over the past eight years.

The prediction model backed the All Blacks to win their opening tournament match over the Springboks by seven points. The ABs actually beat the Boks 23-13.

That win has seen backing of the All Blacks top the 60 per cent mark, said Yelas.

“They are now guaranteed an easier path through to the finals.

“South Africa and Ireland are not expected to meet in a quarter-final which will take out one major team from the rest of the competition reasonably early on.”

It has predicted the All Blacks to win remaining pool games by 59 points against Canada on Wednesday, 63 points against Namibia next Sunday and 37 points against Italy on October 12.

It has predicted an All Black/ Scotland clash in the quarter-finals, giving the Scots just a 2 per cent chance of a win.

From there, Yelas’ model says the All Blacks have a 79 per cent chance of winning their semifinal. England is the most likely opposition, the model showed, with the predictor giving the Eddie Jones-coached team just a 15 per cent shot at victory.

But they’ve got a better chance than the Wallabies, with Yelas’ programme giving them just an 8 per cent chance of making the final, and just a 2 per cent chance of winning.

“With the draw, it would be unlikely if the All Blacks would now meet them anywhere apart from the final,” Yelas said. “And they will be gone by then . . . I don’t think they [the Wallabies] will get through.”

In the lead-in to the 2015 Rugby World Cup, Yelas predicted the All Blacks would win the tournament.

For years earlier he correctly backed the All Blacks to win on home soil.

But in 2007, he was wrong when he again backed the All Blacks to win the World Cup. Instead, the side was knocked out in the quarter-final stages.

“07 was the anomaly that I don’t think anyone could plan for,” Yelas said.

“I am pretty happy with [the model]. It has predicted the All Blacks [correctly] the last two times, and I would have predicted the All Blacks myself the last two times.”

Yelas said given the All Blacks’ long dominance in world rugby, they should win on average one in every two World Cups.