Syria deal spawns more questions than answers

US President Donald Trump hailed it as a great day for civilisation, as an agreement was hammered out yesterday in Ankara between US and Turkish leaders. But it spawned more questions than answers. A look at the key provisions of the deal and remaining uncertainties:

The agreement

A US delegation led by VicePresident Mike Pence met with Turkish leaders, including President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, agreed to the five-day ceasefire in the Turkish assault on Kurdish fighters in northern Syria. The arrangement says the Syrian Kurdish fighters will withdraw out of what has been called a safe zone that is about 30km deep into Syria and stretches across about 125km of the central portion of the border between the two countries. But almost immediately there were disagreements over what to call the deal and what it meant. Pence and Trump routinely referred to it as a ceasefire. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu rejected that term and called it a “pause” in fighting, because he said ceasefires are only possible between “two legitimate sides”. Cavusoglu also said that the Turks would only halt their operation “after the terrorist elements depart” from northeast Syria. What also remained unclear is what the Turkish-backed militias of Syrian fighters will do and how much control the Turkish military will have or try to exert over them.

What the Turks get

In return for the ceasefire, the Turks will get what they have wanted all along: control of the “safe zone” in Syria and, if the ceasefire holds, a halt to the economic sanctions that Trump announced this week.

The US withdrawal

There were mixed signals over what the agreement means for US forces that began a withdrawal from Syria this week as fighting between the Turkish and Kurdish forces escalated. US officials said the ongoing withdrawal was continuing and would probably take a couple of weeks. Diplomatic and humanitarian aid will continue. He also said that the US will “facilitate” the orderly withdrawal of the Kurdish forces from the “safe zone”. Trump said the US would continue to watch Isis, and that the Kurdish fighters would control that monitoring with US supervision.

What about Isis?

As the US withdraws, a fundamental question is what the battle to prevent a re-emergence of Isis will look like. US officials have provided little guidance, but they note that the US can, if needed, launch strikes from bases in Iraq near the Syria border. The US is also leaving 200 to 300 troops at the Al Tanf base in southern Syria.

Isis prisoners

One of the biggest threats in the conflict has been the potential that thousands of imprisoned Isis fighters could escape. Kurdish forces have been guarding the prisons, but some fighters have left to join the battle along the border. And shelling in some areas may have led to the escape of fewer than 100 detainees. Trump said that the detained will be controlled by “different groups”.