Weekend Herald

Battle for Trudeau as Canadians go to polls

- Rob Gillies

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing a tough re-election battle against Conservati­ve Party rival Andrew Scheer in Canadian elections on Monday. Here’s a guide to the election:

What’s at stake?

Trudeau’s championin­g of diversity and gender equality and his refugeefri­endly policies have made him a beacon of hope for liberals, but political and personal missteps have left his re-election in doubt. Not since 1935 has a first-term Canadian prime minister with a parliament­ary majority lost a bid for re-election.

A minority government?

Canadians don’t directly elect the prime minister. The post goes to the leader of a party that’s able to win the confidence of a majority of members in the House of Commons. Polls suggest that no party is likely to get a majority of Parliament’s 338 seats, so a shaky alliance may be needed to pass legislatio­n. If Conservati­ves win the most seats — but not a majority — they are expected to seek an arrangemen­t with the separatist Bloc Quebecois party in Quebec. Trudeau’s Liberals would likely rely on the leftist New Democrats.

Trudeau fatigue?

The main issue appears to be Trudeau himself. Photos of Trudeau appearing in black and brownface when he was younger surfaced last month, casting doubt on his judgment. One of the biggest scandals in Canadian political history occurred earlier, when Trudeau’s former Attorney General, Jody Wilson-Raybould, said he improperly pressured her to halt the criminal prosecutio­n of a company in Quebec, SNC-Lavalin, one of the world’s largest engineerin­g and constructi­on companies. Wilson Raybould was the first indigenous Canadian to hold the position. Trudeau has said he was standing up for jobs. The scandal led to multiple resignatio­ns and caused a drop in poll ratings for Trudeau.

A Yank PM?

Scheer could, technicall­y at least, become Canada’s first American prime minister. The Globe and Mail newspaper reported this month that Scheer holds dual US and Canadian citizenshi­p. Only after he was asked about it did Scheer acknowledg­e it. He said he began the process of renouncing his American citizenshi­p in August, just before the election campaign started, but the process could take 10 months. Scheer had been critical of past Canadian political figures with dual citizenshi­p.

Climate change difference­s

Trudeau implemente­d a national carbon tax and has tried to strike a balance between the environmen­t and the economy. Trudeau cancelled a pipeline from the Alberta oil sands to the Pacific coast but later bought another stalled pipeline in hope of getting Canada’s oil to world markets. Scheer has said he will immediatel­y scrap the carbon tax. He wants more pipelines built from the oil sands, the third largest reserves in the world but a large source of emissions.

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