Fears terrorists may strike as virus rages
Isis and al Qaeda see the coronavirus as a threat, but some of their fighters also see the upheaval from the pandemic as an opportunity to win over more supporters and strike harder than before.
Messages from the Islamic extremist groups show concern about the virus mixed with bravado, asserting that it is punishment for non-Muslims while also urging followers to repent and take care of themselves.
Al Qaeda suggested in a statement that non-Muslims use their time in quarantine to learn about Islam. But in a sharp commentary in its al-Naba newsletter in mid-March, Isis urged followers to show no mercy and launch attacks in this time of crisis.
In a commentary on Wednesday, the International Crisis Group warned the pandemic threatened the global solidarity that was key to fighting extremists, “allowing the jihadists to better prepare spectacular terror attacks”.
Though analysts said it was too soon to say which attacks could be blamed on militants exploiting the coronavirus, Islamic extremists in late March carried out their deadliest assault yet against the military of Chad, a significant contributor to Africa’s growing counterterrorism efforts, killing at least 92 soldiers.
In Egypt, two military officials reported a spike in IS attacks in March in the restive northern part of the Sinai Peninsula.
While Syria and Iraq have seen no uptick in attacks by IS since the virus spread there, the pandemic has prompted the US-led coalition to halt training activities in Iraq amid a planned pullout from several bases.
There are signs elsewhere that the US, British and other militaries are pulling back because of the virus, leaving a possible opening for the extremists.
That’s a danger in Africa’s hot spots of the Sahel, the Lake Chad region and Somalia, where the US military already worried allies in recent months by contemplating cuts to focus on threats from China and Russia.
“Any state that was interested in pulling back in Africa will take the opportunity to do so,” said Clionadh Raleigh, executive director of the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data
Project, which tracks extremists’ activities worldwide. “That will be unbelievably bad.”
A US Africa Command spokeswoman, Lieutenant Christina Gibson, said: “While the size and scope of some Africom activities have been adjusted to ensure the safety and protection of forces — both US and partner nation — our commitment to Africa endures.” She did not give details but said about 5200 forces were on the continent.
The British Army mission in Kenya, which provides counterterrorism training and other skills, this week announced all Army families were returning to the UK because of the virus.
But France’s largest overseas military mission, Barkhane in West Africa’s Sahel region, was keeping its 5100 troops there, the French Defence Ministry said.
Four French soldiers with Barkhane have tested positive for the coronavirus, a spokesman said yesterday. They were the first in the mission to be infected.
African military, already stretched thin and under attack, are likely to take protective measures as the virus threatens. In Nigeria, which has struggled against the Boko Haram extremist group and an assertive IS-linked offshoot, the military has called for suspending much of its activities including large gatherings and training. A leaked memo signed by the Nigerian Army’s policy chief says its vehicles might have to be used for mass burials or transferring the sick to hospitals.
While security forces are targets, under-guarded prisons could be, too, said Laith Alkhouri, a counterterrorism adviser who researches extremists in West Africa.
Isis and al Qaeda-linked fighters have turned the Sahel into Africa’s most urgent extremism crisis.
Their fighters are likely to exploit the pandemic by accusing governments of mismanaging the crisis to try to win popular support, he said.
In Somalia, the al Qaeda-linked alShabab held a rare five-day meeting of its leaders in March that discussed the virus. In a communique, the group recognised its “emergency threat” to the world, including Muslims.