Towards level 3 and the ‘recovery room’

Any move to the lower level would be about consolidating the gains made in alert level 4, not risking reversing them.

New Zealanders wake up this morning to another weekend in lockdown. Another weekend that has come to look remarkably similar to the rest of the week — and the weeks and weekends before it — for the house-bound majority. But this weekend there is a difference; this weekend could be the country’s last in alert level 4.

On Monday, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and her Cabinet will make a decision about whether to lift or extend the nationwide lockdown from this Thursday — a month after it was implemented in an effort to contain the spread of Covid-19 and eradicate it from our shores.

On Thursday, a week ahead of that teasing, possible new-dawn horizon, the Prime Minister broadly outlined what life after lockdown would look like — for individuals, the education sector, businesses and industry.

It seems clear, however — and both Ardern and Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield were at pains to emphasise — alert level 3 will still look a lot like lockdown.

Any move to the lower alert level — and it is certainly not a fait accompli by any means — would be about consolidating the gains made in alert level 4, not risking reversing them. Any changes would not mean tolerating an increase in Covid-19 cases or more deaths from the virus.

Ardern said “level 3 is a progression, not a rush to normality”.

So, in large part, the same or similar measures of the past month will continue to apply.

In some ways it might be the hardest level for the country to sit at. There will be the feeling among the general public that things should be different, yet the reality many frustrating and upsetting restrictions remain in place, and the risk of transmission of the virus still high.

While indicating the importance of getting some businesses and education facilities back in operation, the message remains: while we are “over the peak”, we are by no means “out of the woods”.

Bloomfield says the lower alert level actually means “increased vigilance” is needed by everyone.

To this effect, we will need to dampen down expectations somewhat.

On an individual level, while we may now be able to go for a swim, surf, mountain bike or day walk, we still need to do these things alone or only with people from our bubble. Any signs of public “congregating” will be clamped down on, and activities that carry risk — such as hunting and boating or anything “motorised” — are still banned.

While we may be able to expand our “bubble” slightly in some cases, it is clearly too soon for heartfelt reunions with friends, loved ones and the extended wha¯nau. The message is still to keep our bubbles “small and exclusive”.

This may offer more contact for the elderly, for whom it is acknowledged loneliness may be taking a toll, but there is still clearly a need to protect them and people with compromised immunity, so maintaining strict hygiene and social distancing will still be vital.

There is partial relaxation around life events such as funerals/tangi and weddings, but they must be restricted to no more than 10 people, services only, and no associated functions.

While children up to year 10 can go back to early childhood centres and schools if necessary, the message is still for parents to keep kids online learning at home if possible. Those who do make it into the classroom will find new bubble rules will apply, playtimes will look different, and parents are likely to be dissuaded from gas-bagging at the school gates as social isolating rules still apply — 2m in general, 1m for settings where contacts can be easily traced.

Public playgrounds are still a nono, as there is still a high risk of transmitting the virus on frequentlytouched equipment.

Businesses and industry will get the much-needed green light to resume operations in an cautious effort to open up the economy, but again only in some cases and only if operators can adhere to safety, hygiene and social-distancing measures.

While this will be welcome relief for tradespeople, and those in the likes of the forestry and construction sectors, there will still be severe limitations for retail and hospitality. So, while we can now grab a drivethrough takeaway, it will still be some time before we can go out with a group of mates to a bar, cafe or restaurant, or to the mall.

There will be a high level of trust, responsibility and common sense placed on all New Zealanders. We must “use our judgment”.

When it comes to travel, the message would change from “stay local” to “stay regional”.

Overall, the message is still one of “staying home” if possible, of social distancing, and of using our judgment.

The messages from both Bloomfield and Ardern are: “Don’t push things to the maximum of what you can do, keep contact to a minimum.” “Fundamentally, the more distance, the better.” “Continue to act like you have Covid and to act like those around you or near you have Covid.”

Cabinet won’t make the decision to move the country down to alert level 3 lightly. If it does opt for level 3, there will be a high level of trust, responsibility and common sense placed on all New Zealanders. We must “use our judgment”, continue to be precautionary, and rise to the occasion. We need to hang in there — in what the PM calls the “waiting room” or the “recovery room” — in order to get back out there — into normal life — as soon as possible.

If we can do that, if we can be patient for just a while longer, if we can continue to reduce the number of cases and community transmission, retain confidence in our testing, contact tracing and quarantine measures, there is much to be (cautiously) optimistic about.