Tough Cup decisions ahead for Team NZ
The cancellation of the two America's Cup World Series regattas will force Emirates Team New Zealand to make some difficult decisions in their strategy in preparation for the America's Cup defence.
The defender will go into the America's Cup in a level of pre-series isolation, not seen before in the event — Deed of Gift matches in 1988 and 2010 excepted.
Had all gone as planned, the America's Cup champions would have tested themselves against the three challengers' AC75s in Cagliari, in late April, and Portsmouth in early June, and finally in the Christmas regatta due to be held in Auckland in December.
It had been assumed that additional World Series regattas would be held in Auckland to make up for the cancelled events.
But surprisingly INEOS Team UK skipper Ben Ainslie, does not want to see any additional regattas, and in fact, wants to see the race schedule compressed for the challenger selection series or Prada Cup.
‘‘I think everyone will be hard pushed to get themselves sorted out -—even by January/February,’’ Ainslie said in early April.
‘‘Probably we should be looking at delaying or cancelling the Christmas race, potentially even shortening up the Challenger Series to give everyone more time to get their houses in order and get to New Zealand in a safe manner.’’
There is now an opportunity for the challengers to close the gap on the Kiwis — by depriving the defender of competition ahead of the America's Cup Match.
Under the Protocol sailing or testing ‘‘in a coordinated manner’’ against another AC75 is banned for all teams.
That prohibition changes once the Prada Cup begins for selection of
Team New Zealand’s opponent. The rules allow the defender to commence two-boat race training or speed testing at the same time.
TNZ now have four options, none of which are ideal and all have significant downsides for the Kiwi team.
Firstly they can sail their two AC75s against each other for just the five weeks of the Prada Cup, starting on January 15, 2021.
That will require two crews of 11 sailors each. Team NZ has only one listed AC75 crew.
For a two-boat strategy, recruitment and training of a second crew would have to start now — incurring a substantial unbudgeted cost. Those last three words are music to the ears of the challengers, as they know that of all the teams, the Kiwis are the most vulnerable financially.
The second option is to create a four-person second crew and sail the half-size test boat Te Ka¯hu against one of the two AC75s. This option allows two boat testing to commence as soon as Te Aihe is recommissioned, switching to their second AC75 when it is launched.
The use of Te Ka¯hu gives TNZ a sailing time advantage over the challengers. But it doesn't offset the lost opportunity to benchmark Te Aihe against the challengers’ yachts in the two cancelled World Series regattas.
In the Christmas Cup, the challengers could collectively agree to sandbag in their few races against the defender, depriving the Kiwis of any realistic racing ahead of the America's Cup.
The third option is to carry on as TNZ have done since the launch of their first AC75 — sailing just one boat against the performance computer and simulator.
The final option is to dust off the Bermuda strategy — where on the water work-outs involved sailing the AC50 against the team chase boat, in Auckland in early 2017. But after arriving in Bermuda they sharpened their claws by sailing 24 races, in the challenger selection series, before going on to win the America's Cup.
All teams will get just eight or nine races in the Christmas Cup. TNZ's series will be tinged with the doubt of whether or not the challengers are sandbagging.
The Christmas Cup will be the end of their exposure to other teams — who go on to compete in three phases totalling maybe 26 races in the Prada Cup. The winner goes on to sail against TNZ in the America's Cup Match
TNZ's most likely strategy is the second or Te Ka¯hu option — racing one of their two AC75s against their half-size test boat.
Richard Gladwell is the NZ Editor of Sail-World.com/nz, and a leading NZ-based international sailing photo-journalist.