How Maduro’s manoeuvres are sidelining opposition
Venezuelan President Nicols Maduro is increasingly moving to sideline the opposition led by US-backed lawmaker Juan Guaido. A string of recent court rulings dismantling three influential opposition parties along with growing citizen disillusionment — not to mention the coronavirus pandemic — have thrown a new wrench in the opposition’s efforts to oust Maduro.
What does this mean for the opposition?
Over the past month, Venezuela’s government-stacked Supreme Court has ordered the takeover of three dominant opposition parties. The magistrates have picked new leaders for each party’s board of directors — all of whom are suspected of being covert Maduro loyalists.
Though the appointees once belonged to opposition parties, they were kicked out, accused of taking bribes from Maduro allies to support the socialist government and undermine Guaido. The banned opposition members deny the accusations against them.
Guaido, whose Popular Will party is among those affected, and other opposition leaders say the Supreme Court’s actions will not halt their efforts to get Maduro out.
Nonetheless, the court-named leaders are expected to carry out activities including campaigns under the name of the opposition parties.
How does this affect the upcoming vote?
The now-removed opposition party leaders had signalled in advance that they would not participate in the December 6 legislative election. The new appointed leaders say they will.
This means that when voters go to the ballot box later this year, they will likely see the names of the traditional opposition parties — and may not know that they are now represented by people the opposition claims are Maduro loyalists.
“It’s an effort of Maduro’s administration to try and confuse things, pretend these parties are willing to participate,” said Diego Moya Ocampos, a political risk analyst.
The move is one of several in recent years taken by Maduro-aligned institutions that stifle the chance of holding a free and fair vote.
While there had been hopes of negotiating a new, more impartial National Electoral Council, the Supreme Court recently went ahead with appointing a board that is once again tilted in Maduro’s favour.
Why is the National Assembly vote important?
The National Assembly is the only branch of Venezuela’s national government left under opposition control. If Maduro were to succeed in packing it with his allies, critics fear it would mark the end of democratic participation in government.
The legislature is already largely powerless, their rulings annulled by the Supreme Court. But it is one of the opposition’s few remaining platforms, and the means through which they have gathered powerful international support.
Guaido claims that under the constitution he, as National Assembly president, is Venezuela’s interim leader because Maduro’s re-election was fraudulent.
Guaido’s faction has not officially announced whether they will participate in the elections. Analysts think that if the opposition abstains, its leaders may still claim they are the nation’s legitimate legislature in 2021 creating a system of duelling congresses.
What does this mean for Venezuela’s future?
The manoeuvres indicate Maduro is trying to create a one-party system, allowing only small opposition parties that are in practice more like loyalists, said David Smilde, a senior fellow at the Washington Office on Latin America.
Allowing some dissenting voices would create some semblance of democratic participation, though they would remain on the margins.
“It’s a very grim situation for the opposition,” Smilde said.
While the US may continue to back Guaido’s claim to the presidency, other international governments could begin to question that if he does not participate in the elections and his term as a congressman expires.
Guaido’s popularity in polls has also declined, a sign of the growing disenchantment many Venezuelans feel. Combined with the coronavirus pandemic, it would be difficult for the opposition to regain momentum.
“It’s hard to know how to stop this trajectory,” Smilde said. “The world is not in a position where they are going to intervene in Venezuela or pay that much attention to it.”