Nats need election message rethink
Collins needs to put her own stamp on campaign and Ardern must review Labour’s strategy
Judith Collins and Jacinda Ardern have something in common. Both women come from political parties that did not turn to them for leadership until they were desperate — and then they both turned out to be quite good.
It is a little premature to be proclaiming Collins a success.
But the way she has started in the job must give Labour cause for some worry.
Ardern was not considered a serious option because she showed no ambition among colleagues with an abundance of it. She appeared more concerned with image than substance, and consequently was seen as a lightweight.
It was hard to picture her as Opposition leader, let alone Prime Minister, and now she is, she still resists playing to type.
She has proven she is not a lightweight. But she does not feel the need to look like a strong leader, just because that is what prime ministers should be.
She is content to be the nice Prime Minister, because that is the authentic Ardern.
Collins was not considered a serious option because the National Party is full of men who have dreamed of becoming Prime Minister one day and it has been more valid in National to fulfil their leadership ambitions.
Todd Muller was one of them and his failure should be a salutary lesson to those who see Christopher Luxon as the next great hope for National.
Self-belief and boyhood dreams can take you far in business, however, success in business management does not translate to political management.
Collins is an unusual woman politician in that she has never hidden her ambition nor shown a hint of suffering from imposter syndrome.
She is a political heavyweight with experience not just in social portfolios, housing, corrections and justice, but energy, tax, and resource management.
The authentic Judith Collins is a strong leader. It is not by raising her voice and tub-thumping. Her raised eyebrow is equivalent to the Muldoon smirk, or the Helen Clark death stare.
It is by her actions. She took appropriate action to remove Michael Woodhouse from health. Her decision this week not to acquiesce to
Amy Adams’ demands to keep the Covid-19 policy portfolio is also a case in point. It was a portfolio contrived by Todd Muller to lure Adams out of her retirement plans. It also encroached heavily on the finance portfolio, which Adams had given up in 2019 to Paul Goldsmith.
For Collins to be faced on day one of her leadership with an ultimatum by Adams that it was Covid-19 or she was gone again, Collins made the right choice, even though it was a bad look for her.
The resignation of Nikki Kaye, the modern face of National, more for some personal peace, was a more significant blow than Adams’ announcement to the post-Muller rescue mission by Collins.
And the admission yesterday by former leader Simon Bridges that he did not vote for Collins was also a misjudgment that had no equivalent in her previous admission that she had voted for Muller.
It is one thing to say you’ve backed the successful leader; it’s another to say you didn’t support the one who has just been elected, and Bridges should regret that.
Collins brushed it off as she had to do. The unfortunate aspects of her start have not been down to her.
She has made an extremely difficult job look effortless. She has a view on virtually everything because of her breadth of experience and has no issue expressing it.
One feature of Collins’ appearances that jars somewhat, especially under present circumstances, is the joviality and bonhomie that was on display at the mega-transport plan launch in Auckland yesterday.
She is far better at being serious than her perpetual wry comments, which are often lost in translation.
Despite that and the extraordinary circumstances, she delivered the transport package relatively seamlessly.
As deputy leader Gerry Brownlee noted yesterday, Collins has stepped up as though she has been in the job for a long time.
It was the package of transport projects that was to have been unveiled four days ago by Muller, the day he resigned, and it was fortuitous that Collins has had such a substantial policy with which to effectively launch her leadership.
Another feature of yesterday’s presentation that jarred was the continual reference to having a stronger team.
It was a necessary campaigning theme when Muller, a relative unknown, took the job to pit himself against a hugely popular Prime Minister and he had a strong line-up of former ministers behind him.
It would almost certainly have been the theme had Simon Bridges been left in his job.
But after the chaos of the past fortnight in National, the resignations, demotions and retirements of so many people, the party surely needs to rethink its approach.
The domino effect has devastated the ranks of National since the revelations two weeks ago in the Weekend Herald that the details of Covid-19 patients had been passed to the news media: Clutha-Southland MP Hamish Walker, former party president Michelle Boag, Todd Muller in the leadership, and his two closest advisers, Nikki Kaye and Amy Adams.
Collins has rebuilt a credible team from the ruins.
But the public is not going to be particularly interested in Paul Goldsmith, Gerry Brownlee or Chris Bishop.
National now has a uniquely fascinating leader with a reputation for strong leadership.
It would seem more sensible to change the message.
Labour too will have to rethink its strategy of simply “governing” its way to re-election and accepting there might be an inconvenient election in between its grip on power.
Collins will draw saturation coverage reminiscent only of Ardern’s unexpected elevation to leadership.
Labour will not want Collins to have too much history in common with Ardern.
It is one thing to say you’ve backed the successful leader; it’s another to say you didn’t support the one who has just been elected, and Bridges should regret that.