Our difficult tightrope out of lockdown
New Zealand’s pathway forward out of the Delta outbreak and towards a new pandemic normal is a challenge that shouldn’t be underestimated.
For Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, this involves continuing to push vaccine targets high and keeping coronavirus cases and hospital admissions manageable.
But there’s much more to get right. The next few months need to be used to embed a different way of going about life among the public, which could be difficult to achieve.
While the focus here for people has been on vaccinations, having the right ongoing guidance and restrictions in place is just as important.
Countries that have so far coped best with the dodgem course of Covid19 reopening have maintained a set of common-sense rules alongside jab targets rather than trying to lift restrictions altogether. In Western Europe, the United Kingdom is struggling badly with Covid in comparison to neighbours such as France, Germany, and Italy with case numbers, hospitalisations and deaths much higher. New daily coronavirus case numbers in the UK have been more than 40,000 this week and Covid deaths — 223 on Wednesday — are the worst since March. The infection rate is about 430 per 100,000 people.
Data analysis suggests this is partly to do with some waning vaccine immunity. The UK, after Israel, was the quickest off the mark with a vaccine rollout. Other major countries in Western Europe were slower and are generally yet to hit this hurdle. Israel turned to a booster programme and in Britain about half of the eight million people currently eligible for a third shot have had it in the past month. France hopes to get boosters to people aged over 65 by mid next month.
There are other crucial factors to consider over restrictions, advice and compliance. Unlike its neighbours, Britain didn’t maintain social distancing. Widespread mask-wearing in shops and on public transport was dropped. Large, crowded, indoor events — ideal for virus transmission — became commonplace. A plan for a Covid certificate was dropped for England in September.
Other European countries require vaccine passports for hospitality, mass events and on public transport. There are mask mandates for public buildings and Germany has also advised that medical grade masks should be used.
Vaccine certificates have to be checked to be effective — Ireland has found a third of bars and eateries there are not correctly doing so. Its coronavirus situation has deteriorated since June and Deputy Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said the main cause was increased socialising. Use of the pass is being extended until at least February.
The UK was slower than countries on the continent — and NZ — in starting to vaccinate teenage schoolchildren. Covid is currently circulating the most among the 5 to 19 age group in the UK, while the over-85s are most frequently being admitted with the virus to hospital. Although the British Government has so far ruled out a return to lockdowns, health experts are calling for a return to methods that are simply known to work.
There are several lessons New Zealand can draw on, including that some restrictions will have to remain for a considerable time.
University College London epidemiologist Professor Andrew Hayward said: “Two things that will help are a) the [booster] vaccinations, but b) social distancing, and the most effective way of achieving better social distancing is those people who can easily work from home should do so — it makes everything less crowded for everybody and less transmission. Wearing masks will make a difference, and we have, as a society, given up on that, which is a shame.”
There are several lessons New Zealand can draw on, including that some restrictions will have to remain for a considerable time. Hospitality is the most crucial area to get right and businesses will need to co-operate for a vaccine pass system to work smoothly. Eating and drinking outdoors rather than indoors has to be more commonplace.
Mandates where appropriate, boosters, shots for children under-12, vaccine certificates, mask-wearing for shop visits and on public transport, social distancing, group size limits, visit scanning and future use of rapid testing, will likely be part of the toolkit.
A careful approach rather than a free-for-all is the right move, but making it work in practice over a long period, changing people’s habits and routines will not be easy.