The best bets for Karaka Million night
It is New Zealand racing’s glamour night of the year at Ellerslie, and after plenty of phone calls, video analysis and scanning the markets, this is how racing editor Michael Guerin suggests those keen for a responsible bet attack the huge night.
Race 1 $110,000 Karaka Cup, 2200m
Who: The stayers clash in the only non-blacktype race all night. Money talks: Tiptronic (1) is a solid $2 favourite but the money has come for River Falls (5) who is $5.50 into $4.20 with the NZ TAB. The bet: Tiptronic won a Group 1 last start and this race last year so still the one to beat. The 1-5 fixed quinella at $3.60 is another option.
Race 4 $1,000,000 Karaka Million, 1200m Race 2 $150,000
Westbury Classic, 1400m
Who: High-class mares looking for a valuable Group 2 win.
Money talks: Support has come for Jodelin Girl (5) from $5.50 to $4.80 and that has pushed favourite Amarelinha out from $2.50 to $2.70.
The bet: Our Alley Cat (2) was excellent in this race last year and has a great 1400m record. He has early speed and a perfect barrier so is a top each-way bet around $5.50.
Who: The best thoroughbred babies purchased at Karaka less than a year ago.
Money talks: Dynastic (6) was backed straight after the draw then Wolverine (9) also took good support. The market tightened when Grace N Grey was scratched. The bet: Dynastic has the Kings of Karaka in Jamie Richards and Opie Bosson, and the draw, but is short enough. If you back him, place a cover bet on Fellini (1). Sacred Sotono (3) is a nice top 4 option at $2.90, as is Dynastic and Fellini top 4 at $3.
Race 5 $110,000 Concorde, 1200m Race 3 $110,000 Almanzor Trophy, 1200m
Who: Elite sprinting three-year-olds who were ineligible for Karaka Mile or better suited to a short trip.
Money talks: Mohawk Brave (4) has moved from $11 into $8 and Imperatriz (3) $3.50 into $3.30 so that has pushed out their stablemate Sword Of State (1).
The bet: Sword Of State tis he best horse here but has a big weight for a little horse. He may still win but is only backable if he gets to $3. The TAB has a power play option (below main field) of Sword Of State and Imperatriz to both finish top 4, and it’s a lovely option.
Who: Top sprinters with a sprinkling of good milers fresh-up.
Money talks: Festivity (5) has been backed in from $4 to $3.50 and there has been small money for Markus Aurelius (2), which has pushed favourite Babylon Berlin (10) out to $2.70.
The bet: A good race to attack because Babylon Berlin is very fast, so take the $2.70 for 60% of your spend and cover with 40% on Festivity.
Race 6 $1,000,000 Karaka Classic, 1600m
Who: Three-year-olds sold at Karaka two years ago. Money talks: On The Bubbles (1) being so short has seen little movement apart from Tutukaka (2) who has been bet from $21 into $15.
The bet: It’s awfully hard to take $1.60 about the favourite, but Tutukaka’s $4 place and $2.90 top 4 odds make sense as the blinkers will be a huge help. The power play also offers $6 for On The Bubbles to win/Tutukaka top 4, which is over 20% more than their combined prices for the same result.